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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jimbo Cobb who wrote (90924)	4/26/2001 8:38:17 AM
From: rudedog	Respond to of 97611

Jimbo - you KNOW better than that. I own both stocks in equal amounts. I used to own a lot more. I sold about 2/3 of my position in both stocks in the high 40's. I have held the rest. CPQ just hit it's peak earlier. Yea, I might have done a little better if I had gotten in on DELL a little earlier. My basis in DELL is about 9, my basis in CPQ is about 7. But the statement you made is that DELL is kicking CPQ's butt, and it looks to me like the opposite is true over the last 2 years, 1 year, 3 months... as an investment, CPQ has been out-performing DELL, unless you go back to "the good old days". Well, "the good old days" are long gone. Market cap? What kind of BS is that? Can I buy or sell market cap? How do I make money on market cap? We are talking investment here, not whether MSD's schlong is bigger than MDC's... market cap has exactly zero to do with the potential value of an investment. DELL will be lucky to hit ZERO EPS growth year over year when they report in a few weeks. Read that again - ZERO EPS growth. So despite their increases in revenue, in share, in all that other macho stuff, they are taking a lot LESS to the bottom line, so much less that they are not growing the bottom line AT ALL. If they don't grow earnings, it doesn't matter whether they own 100% of the PC business. The stock will still be about where it is now... maybe lower. IF they get back on a 20% earnings growth, the stock might get to mid-30s in a year. That's OK but hardly "butt-kicking". CPQ would only have to get to the low 20s to have an equivalent gain. You tell me why the stuff you are talking about will move DELL's stock price. I thought you were smarter than that.

To: Jimbo Cobb who wrote (90924)	4/26/2001 11:33:39 AM
From: MeDroogies	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97611

I disagree game over. I agree that Dell has kicked serious ass over the last 5 years, but lately has not performed as well as CPQ. Dell didn't fall further because it went up more...it fell because it has a less stable business model. If PCs fail, Dell dies. Dell's only hope of survival is to improve other areas of sales, and gaining market share in PCs in case the industry rebounds (both are questionable strategies for the Dell business model). Dell is great at what it does. They kick butt...no question. But while CPQ has not performed as well as anyone here would hope, it certainly has performed better than its brethren in the industry since I jumped into this sector (Nov. 99), and it is well positioned for the future. Unfortunately, the future is quite a ways off at this point....as it is for many companies on the stock market.