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Strategies & Market Trends : Bonds, Currencies, Commodities and Index Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (1667)	4/26/2001 12:14:45 PM
From: Chip McVickar	Respond to of 12410

The Kondratieff Cycle Theory If one skips the referance to y2k this is an interesting read. angelfire.com The Kondratieff Cycle is a theory based on a study of nineteenth century price behavior which included wages, interest rates, raw material prices, foreign trade, bank deposits, and other data. He, like R.N. Elliott, Kondratieff was convinced that his studies of economic, social, and cultural life proved that a long term order of economic behavior existed and could be used for the purpose of anticipating future economic developments. He observed certain characteristics about the growth and contractionary phase of the long wave. Among them, he detailed the number of years that the economy expanded and contracted during each part of the half-century long cycle, which industries suffer the most during the downwave, and how technology plays a role in leading the way out of the contraction into the next upwave. The fifty to fifty-four year cycle of catastrophe and renewal..............

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (1667)	4/27/2001 2:03:41 PM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 12410

Chip, the fixed income market is concerned about renewed inflation developing over the next year or so. some feel the bond market is already starting to look ahead to when the FED has to take a rate cut back, in 6 or 8 months... GDP was not as weak as most thought it would be, housing is very robust, Gasoline prices at all time highs, NG prices still above the all time high price prior to last summer of 4.60. this little blurb, builds on this theme: Along with the GDP data, the strength of the housing sector has been a major negative for fixed-income. While we have searched far and wide for some type of story as to why housing has been so resilient, everyone else has been playing the guessing game as well. Of interest, the strength has been confirmed by the stock market, as we would note the favorable technical picture surrounding Home Depot (HD). The stock has broken through trendline resistance derived from a double-top seen last April. Not to be outdone, we have also seen a break of the 200-day moving average, which itself has begun to level off, while the 100-day moving average is now turning higher. About the only technical factor that fits better with the ongoing deterioration in confidence and thoughts of some hibernation on the part of the US consumer is the fact that the stock has been unable to take out the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (around $48.20) of the April to October push lower.