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To: Gary Martin who wrote (1690)	4/26/2001 11:39:47 PM
From: Chip McVickar	Respond to of 12410

Hello Gary, We've been following wheat, corn and soybeans...off and on. Also the metals and some currencies....off and on. Corn chart is dead because of starlink. Wheat's been promising to take a run for weeks but cannot break it's range. But the charts run out of time and suggests a move is likely. Looking at a window over the next few weeks. What do you mean by a ridge pattern in the charts...? To me the charts just a horizontal coil. As to weather..., take a look in my header, there's a couple of links that might be worth while...? Chip

To: Gary Martin who wrote (1690)	4/27/2001 5:14:41 PM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 12410

HI Gary, I see you have Chip baffled on the "ridge" pattern, you're talking about the high pressure type of ridge pattern that can cause hot dry weather for sometimes prolonged periods of time and hurt plant germination( if it occurs to early) and growth if heat is excessive. below is the latest SSB weather update, the longer term forecasts you may have been hearing about sometimes pan out and sometimes they do not, I don't think it's enough to give us a traders/investor edge. John ------------------- DOMESTIC Weather Jon B. Davis/Mark Russo - Meteorologists Salomon Smith Barney - Chicago Friday, April 27, 2001 Wheat There are no changes in the short-term forecast for the major winter wheat or spring wheat growing areas across the US. Please see yesterday's in-depth discussion on the Plains hard red winter wheat, Midwest soft red winter wheat, Pacific Northwest white winter wheat, and Northern Plains spring wheat belt. Midwest Corn It is the same old story in the Midwest as the weather tendency will consistently be warmer than normal and drier than normal during the next 10-12 days. Temps will oscillate between near normal levels on the cool days to 14-18 degrees above normal on the warmest days. Thus, readings during the entire period will average out to be significantly above normal. This will help to speed germination, emergence, and establishment of the corn once it is seeded. The majority of the Midwest will be dry during this period as only a few very minor shower systems move thru the region. These minor shower systems, in which there will be 2-3 during the period, will only produce coverage of 10-15 percent of the belt with most amounts under .5 inch. Overall coverage of the Midwest during the next 10- 12 days will only be 30-35 percent of the belt. In this 1/3 of the belt that gets some showers, they will be light and mostly under .5 inch. The upcoming pattern of warmth and dryness will obviously allow for mostly "open" weather and a major acceleration in corn planting into the early portion of May. Planting conditions into the early portion of May will be basically ideal. For the vast majority of the belt, the corn will be planted in a timely or normal basis. The only area where there may be some late planting, and that is becoming debatable based on the forecast, is portions of the northwest Midwest. Within 10 days from now, which would be by the end of the weekend of May 5-6, the vast majority of the corn will be in the ground. There were some discussions yesterday about the current warm and dry pattern eventually leading to problems in the Midwest. This is true if the current pattern lasts until July. For the time-being, however, this pattern is highly beneficial and will lead to rapid planting, germination and establishment which is extremely beneficial for overall yield potential. The weather to be concerned about at this time of year is coolness and wetness and we have neither. If the current pattern is still in place in late June or early July then, there will be a rational reason for concern. Cotton * The Delta The Delta will have a stretch of nearly perfect weather for fieldwork operations and planting progress during the next week. We have included a map below of the cotton acreage across the nation; the Delta is obviously the area along the southern portion of the Mississippi River. No significant rain is expected during the next 7 days and temps will be near to above normal. Highs will be consistently in the 80s while lows range from the upper 50s to the mid 60s. These temps are near normal in the southern portion of the belt (northern LA) and 8-12 degrees above normal in the northern portion of the belt (western TN and southeast MO). This will allow for rapid planting progress across the belt as seeding continues to run ahead of schedule. The next chance of rain will be over the first weekend of May (May 5-6) and this looks like a scattered event that will produce mainly light showers across less than 1/2 of the growing area. All in all, it is a very good start to the planting season as the crop goes in early which is traditionally good for overall yield potential. * Southeast The outlook for the Southeast is similar to the Delta with a bias of warm temps and dry conditions during the next week. Temps will be above normal during the next week as highs range from the upper 70s to the middle 80s while lows are in the 50s and lower 60s. The warmest stretch of weather will be next week when readings are consistently above normal from Monday thru Friday. No rainfall of significance is expected during the next week to 10 days. This stretch of "open" weather will allow for very favorable fieldwork preparation and planting. Planting rates, which are currently at a normal pace, should start nudging ahead of schedule into early May based on the upcoming weather conditions. * Texas The growing areas in southern Texas (Rio Grande Valley and Coastal Bend) got some rains early this week and more are on the way. Some scattered showers are expected during the next few days with more widespread activity expected next week. When all is said and done, 70 percent of the cotton acreage in southern Texas will receive amounts of .4-1.5 inches which will help to increase soil moisture levels and improve early growth; the cotton in southern Texas has long been planted. In the growing areas in the northern portion of the state (High Plains and Blacklands), the upcoming trend of dry weather and warm temps will likely lead to an increase in fieldwork preparation and even some early planting in a few spots. Normally, planting in these areas does not get into full gear until late May or early June. If the current weather trends continue, then there will likely be some early seeding rates this season. * California The cotton acreage in the San Jouquin Valley is currently benefiting from the warmer weather which will continue into the weekend. Cooler weather is on tap for next week, however, as another pocket of cool air moves from western Canada down into the Far West. This will send temps to slightly below normal levels by the middle to end of next week with a potential of well below normal readings after that. This turn toward cooler weather will again slow down germination and emergence of the crop in CA which has been an on-going problem this spring. Florida Citrus The central and southern sections of Florida will be dry thru the middle of next week. After that, a much more active pattern will begin to develop across the area by late next week and over the first weekend of May. This active pattern will be due to the development of what we call an easterly flow which means the winds in the lower atmosphere will be moving from east to west across the region. In other words, the wind flow will be from the Bahamas across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. This type of an easterly flow is very conducive for rains in Florida and is typically, how Florida gets some of their best rain events. During the first week of May (May 1-7), the belt will receive amounts of 1-3 inches with 75 percent coverage of the region. This will increase soil moisture reserves and aid early fruit development of the citrus.