To: Esway who wrote (4297 ) 5/1/2001 2:57:12 PM From: JakeStraw Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 5499 Techs May Look Good But Beware of Bear-Trap Rally dailynews.yahoo.com NEW YORK (Reuters) - Technology stocks may look enticing but money managers caution that recent gains may be too good to last. Internet consultant Sapient Corp. (NasdaqNM:SAPE - news) and other technology stocks have led the Standard & Poor's 500 index's bounce off its low but this may yet prove a trap for the unwary, they say. An old adage says that the leading sector of a prior bull market doesn't lead the next. So while technology stocks accounted for 23 of the 25 best-performing stocks in the S&P 500 in the last month, and the index is up 13 percent from its April 4 low of 1103.25, money managers suspect the index may suffer another drop. ``I don't put a lot of faith in what this may mean for the next quarter or two,'' said Dan Cook, technology portfolio manager at Malvern, Pennsylvania-based StoneRidge Investment Partners LLC, which oversees $960 million in assets. ``We are not out of the bear market and though we will hold the low, we could sell off'' from here. Though Cook obviously prefers technology stocks to rally, he said the April rebound was more attributable to the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index's 68 percent drop from its March 2000 high, than the outlook for technology profits. ``Tech just took a huge pounding and we have had a classic overshoot'' situation, agreed Michelle Clayman, chief investment officer at New Amsterdam Partners, which oversees $1.1 billion. ''So this rebound now is not surprising.'' QLogic Corp. (NasdaqNM:QLGC - news) has jumped 91 percent in the last month to Monday's close, Sapient Corp. gained 87 percent, and Siebel Systems Inc. (NasdaqNM:SEBL - news) gained 68 percent. The only non-tech companies in the S&P 500's top 25 were Best Buy Co.(NYSE:BBY - news), up 53 percent, and Circuit City Stores Inc. (NYSE:CC - news), up 42 percent. ``The top-performing S&P 500 names now are not the kind of stocks you want to own in the next bull market,'' said Price Headley, president of BigTrends.com. a Lexington, Kentucky-based research and private client money management firm. ``We think there will be another retest of the low to come in the next three to four weeks, and only then may we see a sustained rally.'' The stock market tends to confound the majority opinion, said Headley and other market-watchers. ``With the majority thinking that stocks are rolling up, we think there will be another shake-out.'' The S&P 500 entered a bear market on March 12 when it closed at 1,180.16, more than 20 percent below its March 24, 2000 record close of 1527.46. The S&P index has to close 20 percent up from its lowest closing trough for the bear market to end, according to one common measure. If the S&P reaches 1,323.90, which is 20 percent above its April 4 low, then the current bear market would be considered over, market technicians said. The index rose 5.64, 0.45 percent, to 1255.01, in mid-afternoon trading on Tuesday. History tends to support the belief investors have a little longer to wait before another bull market. Since 1970, the average time for the S&P 500 to jump 20 percent from a bear market trough is 73 trading days, according to BIgTrends.com. The shortest was 23 trading days in 1974. It's now just 18 trading days since the April 4 low. ``The real trough will be when you call clients and they tell you they never want to buy another tech stock again,'' said Gil Knight, a portfolio manager at Baltimore-based Allied Investment Advisors Inc, which oversees $13 billion. That will indicate all the speculators have been wrung out of the market and raises the possibility of a sustained market advance, Knight said. So what stocks may investors see leading the next bull market? Headley is looking at financial stocks such as consumer finance company Household International Inc.(NYSE:HI - news),, brokerage stocks such as Merrill Lynch and Co.(NYSE:MER - news) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.(NYSE:GS - news), and retailers Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE:ANF - news) and American Eagle Outfitters Inc (NasdaqNM:AEOS - news). New Amsterdam's Clayman suggests capital goods companies could be among the leading stocks of the next bull market. Though she has still to make her picks, Boeing Co. (NYSE:BA - news)., General Electric Co. (NYSE:GE - news). and Cummins Inc.(NYSE:CUM - news) are the type of companies that may be among the big winners. ``The old fashioned companies that make stuff,'' Clayman said.