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Pastimes : Home on the range where the buffalo roam -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Boplicity who wrote (13160)	4/26/2001 7:36:29 PM
From: Raymond Duray	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 13572

Hi Greg, Last I heard, SBC was on target. But I haven't been as nose to grindstone of late as I formerly was. Instead of shorting the heck out of all the wreckage I saw coming in telecom last fall and winter, I simply hunkered down. Now it looks like the worst is behind us. Would you agree that the 1996 act has largely failed and was flawed from the get go? It certainly appears that way. The destruction of capital in the CLEC arena (COVD, NPNT, TGNT, WCII etc.) is breathtaking and far more devastating than I ever suspected up until last October, when the bond losses at Morgan, Stanley in their telecom investments became public knowledge. Generally, the '96 Act was flawed because you simply cannot create a viable market structure by political fiat. The same can be said of the California power market. Finally what would you like to see happen to speed the adoption of xDSL? There's a wireless guy on SI named ElMatador who harps on the "DSL is dead" theme. I often agree with ElMat, but not completely on this one. The provisioning of xDSL will slow dramatically from the percentage growth we see in 2001. Prices will rise and there won't be nearly the demand that many tech investors imagine, since tech investors tend to have blinders on, thinking the whole world is just as tech savvy and demanding as they are. A couple of sober market surveys I've seen indicate that the bulk of Americans are content with dial-up networking. A position that is being reinforced by the number of horror stories that circulate on installation nightmares with DSL. HTH, Ray :)