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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Shread who wrote (6398)	4/26/2001 6:57:27 PM
From: Gersh Avery	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

Ahhh!! I see what you are talking about re broken uptrend lines. I just updated my chart for the morning. homestead.com Note that I have an ascending fork based, in part, on the 4/4 bottom. You use that starting point and one or two touch points to form a line .. so that line is broken. My fork is not broken, yet .. I am expecting this rising fork to fail quickly. It moves up to fast and has a channel that is to narrow. The descending fork is good. That is, the rate of fall is less than the last good wide fork that just died. If we were to hit the lower tine on this descending fork and bounce up from there: We would have a very nice double bottom ~1100 SPX. This new bottom point would allow the building of a sound stable ascending fork. This new fork would have a rate of rise of ~1.5 points per day .. reasonable. The width of this new fork would be ~150 points wide .. stable. In other words: The ascending fork that I show tends to be a bear market rally kind of fork. Almost parabolic. The fork that would form if we return to the ~1100 mark and bounce would tend to be a stable fork .. more like a bull market fork. So where to form here? I vote for a trip to ~1100 SPX cash.

To: Paul Shread who wrote (6398)	4/26/2001 9:45:23 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 52237

On a longer time-line, since last August, Nas rallies have all failed just below, or just above, the 50-day moving average. This current rally is about the same % rise as the two previous bear rallies (May to July 2000, and January 2001). siliconinvestor.com My main concern (with being short, that is) is that the Fed will keep on pumping up liquidity, and lowering interest rates, to whatever extent needed to prop up consumer spending and the stock market, and they will only stop doing this when inflation gets out of hand. That could produce a huge bear rally, perhaps lasting most of the rest of this year, and taking the Nas up to 3000.