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To: Ilaine who wrote (233)	4/27/2001 10:10:23 AM
From: Don Lloyd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 443

CB - ...I dispute your contention that theory outweighs facts when it comes to economics - eventually, the facts always win. The problem is that 'facts' must be distinguished from 'observable facts'. I guarantee that no matter how much research you do on current economic conditions, your predictions about the future will significantly deviate from actuality. In the case of the historical record, your research will be far less complete due to a good part of the data not being recorded in any way. The problem even extends to the hard science of gravity. The future motions of three bodies under mutual gravity cannot be solved in general because some arrangements are infinitely sensitive to the precision of initial conditions. (Like predicting which way a marble will fall off a knife edge it's balanced upon). In economics, the future is sensitive to the individual whimsical decisions of consumers not even born yet. Regards, Don