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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joseph Beltran who wrote (45946)	4/27/2001 7:13:19 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

The bottom is certainly closer than the top, but I don't want to buy AMAT @$55 if $100-150 is the upside through 2005, and $20-25 is the downside this year. The most significant numbers this earnings season were the 60% and 58% sequential fall in bookings reported by LRCX and NVLS, respectively. Almost every semi company reported decreases in revenue last quarter and more decreases projected for this quarter. INTC will have spent 68% of the $7.5B at the end of this quarter. The networkers have little or no visibility. I don't see bookings increasing significantly for a while and I fear that revenues and earnings will follow bookings down. Finally, I am concerned with the anecdotal complacency evident on this thread. Most people were very bullish at the top and WRONG and most are very bullish now.