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Technology Stocks : Covad Communications - COVD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Captain James T. Kirk who wrote (4053)	4/27/2001 11:27:54 AM
From: John McDonald	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10485

I'm in there Captain. If, I didn't own so much already, I'd be buying more at current prices; and I may anyway. This is a 10 bagger from here once the market perceives that the company will survive. DSL demand is not a question. If the market in general turns up in the next few months, I think COVD's survival prospects greatly improve.

To: Captain James T. Kirk who wrote (4053)	4/27/2001 11:28:58 AM
From: Dana Johnson	Respond to of 10485

I'm in. If they can make it around this corner, there is a lot of upside. I think the line sharing/ self install ought to be very positive over the next few quarters.

To: Captain James T. Kirk who wrote (4053)	4/27/2001 11:41:54 AM
From: BWAC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10485

Hmmmm. I think the focus may be off a little. Its not about COVD's earnings anymore, nor the annual report, nor the business plan, nor the demand for dsl. All that went out the window when the markets focus changed from patience with telcom business plans to worry over the debt. Actually panic over the debt. In this environment the market will be a long time "seeing the broghter side" much less foucusing on COVD's future potential. The market can't see past todays fear right now. Nor can those investors who can or who are willing to see, generate enough power to reverse the current course of bs and fear. Thus the current powers that be which want to see COVD out of business prevail. If you are looking to a specific event that will make or break COVD. Then it is which group of investors wins the power struggle. Wrong group wins, COVD is permanently shut out of the capital markets and goes under. Period. No matter how many customers they sign before year end.

To: Captain James T. Kirk who wrote (4053)	4/28/2001 12:05:12 AM
From: VegasMan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10485

Im in with avg. share price ar 1.27

To: Captain James T. Kirk who wrote (4053)	4/28/2001 9:55:17 AM
From: Bald Eagle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10485

I'm still holding. It's shit or bust for me in COVD, if you'll excuse the expression. I'll hold to 0 or 50, whichever comes first. It might be a long ride, but it already has been.

To: Captain James T. Kirk who wrote (4053)	5/3/2001 10:21:33 AM
From: zax	Respond to of 10485

Can voice-over save DSL? By Christopher Locke Red Herring May 3, 2001 Maybe DSL stands for "doesn't stay long." In a market that's barely five years old, independent DSL providers are finding themselves on the brink of extinction. Northpoint Communications recently shut down operations after filing for bankruptcy last January, leaving more than 100,000 customers without service. The No. 2 supplier, Rhythms NetConnections (Nasdaq: RTHM), has seen its stock plummet to less than $1 per share. The "healthiest" of the DSL companies, Covad Communications (Nasdaq: COVDE), hasn't released its 2000 earnings, and many infer that they might be worse than expected. It doesn't help that Covad had to invest $20 million in a "restructuring charge" due to the exorbitant number of customers who didn't pay their bills. And when you consider the fact that cable service outnumbers DSL by a three-to-one margin, things seem pretty hopeless, right? Not if General Bandwidth has a say. General Bandwidth, a startup that's creating voice-over-DSL technology for ISPs, believes survival will be found in evolution. "The DSL market will be the first to utilize voice-over technology," says Brendan Mills, president and CEO of General Bandwidth. "The analog system used today to deliver voice is a 100-year-old technology." The company says its technology is ten times cheaper to deploy than analog. Like in most new technology plays, however, there's no outside independent lab to verify General Bandwidth's claims. General Bandwidth says its technology allows multiple voice lines over a single broadband connection, whereas traditional services run over copper. Moreover, customers can install the modem without special technical training -- a big leap from DSL setup today -- and the cost is less, thus improving the bottom line for General Bandwidth. NEW BREED OF BANDWIDTH General Bandwidth is bold to claim its technology will put DSL back in contention with cable. It also says competitors like Zhone Technologies and Alcatel (NYSE: ALA) won't be able to compete with its offerings. The company has not yet publicly announced its customers. But established telecom competitors like Alcatel find General Bandwidth's assertion that they won't be able to compete a complete joke, according to Jay Fausch, senior director for marketing at Alcatel. "Alcatel has a long history of selling to service providers," says Mr. Fausch. "We offer voice-over-DSL solutions that carry on that heritage." First-quarter shipment numbers for Alcatel's DSL modems appear to be as good if not better than in fourth quarter 2000, Mr. Fausch says. Alcatel shipped 1.5 million modems in the fourth quarter to customers SBC, Verizon, and BellSouth (NYSE: BLS). CIRCLING THE DRAIN? General Bandwidth's and Alcatel's choices in customers, however, might hinder their public images instead of helping. Many industry experts contend that as independent DSL suppliers go out of business, regional bell operating companies (RBOCs), like BellSouth, are waiting in the wings to scoop them up. And as the RBOCs' stake in DSL grows, it makes it next to impossible for an independent to compete. There have also been allegations of high pressure and intimidation in getting independents to sell out or risk losing customers to the RBOCs. If these allegations are true, are General Bandwidth and Alcatel contributing to a potential monopoly? Matt Davis, senior analyst with the Yankee Group, acknowledges that there's bad blood between RBOCs and competitive local exchange carriers (CLECs). "You do run into these types of [ethical] issues," Mr. Davis says. But he points out that the CLECs might have contributed to their own demise. "There was too much competition for too small a market to begin with," he says. Whether DSL becomes what "Ma Bell" was to the '70s remains to be seen. One thing is for sure: it's next to impossible for standard DSL service to compete with cable. That puts the pressure on DSL providers to enhance their services in order to survive.