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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: advocatedevil who wrote (45954)	4/27/2001 2:04:50 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

AD, Don Wennerstrom posted a table a couple days ago showing the cycles sorted by Backlog Buildup and Backlog Burn. The current backlog burnoff has been far more intense than either of the prior to burn cycles with more burned off in 4 months than an entire 7 month cycle (if I remember the numbers correctly). Given that the burn has been sudden and sharp, I believe that increases the probability that the recovery could be equally sudden and sharp. That said, I agree with all your fundamental arguments, but would point out that fundamentals didn't save anybody's skin on the way down. But you've already shown reasonable caution. I'd hate to see you report 3 consecutive losses while shorting stocks. Well, maybe not! <vbg> Ian

To: advocatedevil who wrote (45954)	4/27/2001 3:35:12 PM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Respond to of 70976

>>How much higher can the semi-equips reasonably move up in the face of the current sector outlook? << If the Internet bubble taught us anything, it was that stocks can be driven to stratospheric heights by little more than the hot air generated by analysts. Katherine

To: advocatedevil who wrote (45954)	4/30/2001 11:38:22 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Intermediate-term trading: The other scenario we need to consider, is that we have a bear rally like the one that began in May 2000. We didn't take out those lows (I'm looking at the SOX chart), until October 2000. In retrospect, that was a big, long bear rally, but it sure felt like the bull was back, at the time. For anyone who shorted into that rally, it took a lot of patience and courage to hold until new lows. I see consumer confidence, and consumer spending, still falling. This is the plankton at the bottom of the economic food chain, whose decrease will eventually starve the top predators, like AMAT. Those GDP numbers surprised me, though. At the beginning of April (when everyone was discussing whether we get a recession or a depression), I was 100% long the market. As of today (when everyone seems sure the bear market is over, and we won't get a recession), I'm 70% long (old economy Value), 20% put LEAPs (overvalued techs), and 5% cash.