To: tuck who wrote (11 ) 5/14/2001 12:15:43 PM From: Jim Oravetz Respond to of 73 Invitrogen: Backdoor Biotech Play Research Analyst: Will Frankenhoff individualinvestor.com While the overall Nasdaq has melted down roughly 35% over the past 52 weeks, the Nasdaq Biotech Index (AMEX: $BTK) has held up surprisingly well, falling a mere 1%. Does that mean that these companies are generating superior earnings momentum? Of course not! The 76 members of the Index trade at an average negative P/E ratio both on a trailing twelve month (TTM) basis as well as on a forward basis. Other ratios are equally extreme as the average price-to-book ratio is 6.6 while the price/sales ratio stands at 23. Don't get us wrong. We believe that the biotech sector is likely to be one of the most rewarding areas of investment over the next decade, especially following the recent breakthrough in genomics. After all, so-called Human Genome Project identified more than 30,000 different genes that need to be examined, isolated and cloned. That being said, the current uncertainty in the equity markets coupled with relatively high (or non-existent) multiplies make certain of these high-flying companies vulnerable in the near-term. Invitrogen (NASDAQ: IVGN) , the leading supplier of reagents used in both molecular biology and cell culture testing, is not one such company. Shares of Invitrogen closed Friday at $71.48. In simple terms, Invitrogen supplies more than 250 different research kits and a total of over 7,500 products, to corporations, academic research laboratories and government research entities that facilitate the process of medical research and new drug discovery making it faster, easier, less expensive and more accurate. After its acquisition of Life Technologies last September, Invitrogen split its business into two segments: the fast growing (15% to 20% annually), proprietary Molecular Biology business and the mature (growing 10% annually) lower-margin Cell Culture division. While Invitrogen is the leader of the Cell Culture market and does derive a fair amount of revenue from this market (33% or $53.5 million in the most recent quarter), this is a mature, commoditized market and will be a significant driver of growth for the company going forward. That honor is reserved for the Molecular Biology division that generates the lion's share of revenue for the company (67% in the most recent quarter). Invitrogen is the leader of the overall market, holding the number one or two positions in each product category. This business is highly proprietary as it focuses on developing test material for such esoteric research processes as gene cloning and expression, complementary gene cloning (cDNA), and gene amplification for which Invirtogen commands more than 85 patents. There is one key issue to point out with regards to Invitrogen: The company's products are used for research purposes only and thus are not subject to FDA regulatory approval. As a result, Invitrogen is able to develop entirely new products within a relatively short time frame (six months at the outside), enabling it to quickly adapt to any new drug discoveries. As evidenced by Invitrogen's recent results, the combination of market leadership and quick product development cycles is potent. For the first quarter ended March 31, 2001, the company reported pro-forma (including Life Technologies results in last year's quarter) revenue of $160.7 million, up 14% from last year's quarter and slightly ahead of Street expectations of $159.6 million. While this revenue growth rate might not seem that impressive, we'd hasten to point out that the company derives 40% of sales from overseas and suffered a $5.6 million reduction in sales due to foreign currency exchange rates. Nevertheless, it was still able to beat consensus earnings estimates. If the exchange rates were constant with those of the first quarter of 2000, the Invitrogen would have had sales of $166.3 million, up 18%. Pro-forma earnings per share came in at $0.45 per share, up 165% from the $0.17 and 25% ahead of consensus estimates of $0.36, the third consecutive quarter that the company has grown earnings at better than a 100% clip on a year-over-year basis. Aside from improving gross margins due to a higher mix of sales of Molecular Biology reagents, earnings also benefited from the synergies (i.e. lower expenses) gained from the Life Technologies acquisition, a factor that should continue to benefit the company over the next 12-18 months. Bottom Line: Biotech is sexy but it's an extremely big hit or miss proposition for most companies. Invitrogen offers a way to tap into the growth in research of this promising field with a reasonable risk/reward profile. Shares currently trade at around 35 times fiscal 2002 share-profit estimates of $1.95, a very attractive multiple for a market leader in the field. We believe that Invitrogen should be part of any biotech investors core holdings and recommend purchase with a target price of $88 per share, or 45 tines fiscal 2002 estimates -- in line with other profitable biotech firms. FYI,Jim