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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Engel who wrote (133520)	4/28/2001 12:06:17 AM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 186894

Re: The 1.2 GHz AthWiper has been cut in HALF It's been replaced by the 1.33GHZ part, of course the price was cut. There are 3 main parts to the CPU business; desktops, notebooks, and servers. During the past year, Intel took back (nearly) the entire notebook market, and they have always held nearly the entire server market. During the same period, AMD made substantial progress in the desktop market (the largest of the 3 segments) and in the last quarter, INTC profits fell 80% while sales fell 25%. There are a number of reports of AMD near-production level samples floating around, some benchmarks have leaked, and it looks like next quarter AMD may finally re-enter the notebook market and, for the first time, enter the server market. AMD won't make much money in either of those two markets (at first, maybe ever) but Intel will have to lower its prices unless it wants to give up chunks of the notebook and server markets. The brutality of the current price war makes it clear that Intel will fight bitterly for their remaining market share. With Intel appearing committed to aggressive pricing tactics, AMD will not make much money, but with their tiny cost structure they don't have to. If Intel takes ASP hits in the notebook and server segments that are anything like the hits they've taken in the desktop segment during the past year, they'll wind up with a substantial loss for the year. I see AMD as a weak hold or sell in these market conditions, and Intel as a very strong sell - a situation which I don't find very interesting, so I haven't been posting much. AMD cleaned Intel's clock last quarter, this quarter looks like a toss-up, and the clock cleaning resumes next quarter as AMD enters the remainder of Intel's markets. But nobody's going to be making much money in this sector for a long time - too much competition and too bitter competition. Gross margins are down, they are almost certainly going to fall further, and they are going to stay lower indefinitely. Even a 30% increase in sales won't counteract an 50% drop in gross margins. Dan

To: Paul Engel who wrote (133520)	4/28/2001 3:45:44 AM
From: Joe NYC	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

Paul, AMD may have a little trouble maintaining ASP's this quarter - and next quarter - and the next !!! I'll let you in on a secret, which Intel management has been hiding from their shareholders - Intel's ASP. It has been dropping since Q3 of 2000, it dropped last quarter, and it is going to drop again next quarter. Q2 is going to complete a full year of dropping ASPs. It seems that you have adopted the AMDroid logic - that you care more about other company doing poorly than about your company doing well. I think both companies are going to do poorly in Q2 as far as earnings, revenues and ASPs are concerned. Joe