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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (52202)	4/27/2001 11:32:14 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Respond to of 77400

John, can't answer your questions, but here's another good article discussing csco's inventory charge. i must say, i disagree with this writedown. i am afraid i will have to lower my buy target again. perhaps the price of a krispy-kreme coffee if SBUX is too expensive... interactive.wsj.com

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (52202)	4/27/2001 11:37:20 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Respond to of 77400

BTW, here's a great quote from the article>> "Companies should not be able to disregard inventory charges in so-called pro forma calculations," says Jim Chanos, president of Kynikos Associates in New York, which at times has made bearish bets on Cisco's stock, but doesn't have any investment position in the company now. "For managements to encourage, and analysts to accept, such nonsense means we've just descended another rung down the ladder into accounting hell. It's just ridiculous." interactive.wsj.com

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (52202)	4/29/2001 9:14:18 AM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

Cisco's target market for all its products (including service provider) has been estimated to be anywhere from $350B to $450B worldwide. The rate of growth used to be like 20-25% a year ago, but now, I'd say this year the growth will be flat to down 10% and then it's expected to resume growth in 2002 (up 5-10%). I'll root through old articles and see if I can find the growth rates again. Problem with these estimates is that areas like IP telephony and storage networks and metro are growing much faster than the total average. Cisco's share of the total market is pegged around 8-9%. Again, this is problematic, because Cisco has many product segments, most of which they are #1 or #2 in market share. But when you add service provider target market, their market share is much lower and their products haven't taken the lead yet, because they just entered the market in the last 2 or 3 years. It's really hard to take numbers in the aggregate and do any meaningful analysis. It would be better to delve into their distinct market segments, because the growth rates and their share of the market very widely across each segment.

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (52202)	4/30/2001 1:07:54 PM
From: Eric	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

John I would have to agree with mindmeld's numbers as a approximation. Cisco has been trying the last two years to get into the telco transport market and fortunately doesn't at this time have a large presence like NT, LU, Alcatel and others. Granted we are seeing a very severe slowdown but the state of the art is constantly changing. I remember when I was a teenager growing up on Vashon Island near Seattle and visited the local phone company switching office and they were using vertical rotary mechanical switches to make phone connections. That was in 1965 if I remember correctly. The touch tone system had been around for a few years in the Bell system but was barely built out at the time. The noise in that room was deafening! I will never forget that. Boy have we come a long way technology wise. And we have a long way to go with existing "state of the art technology". The problem is those rotary mechanical switches have been around since the 20's with small improvements. The third world still uses a lot of them. Eric