Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (42210)	4/28/2001 8:06:46 AM
From: Bruce Brown	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

I read the past ten posts and thought I was lost. I didn't know what thread I was on.... My excuse - I've been busy the past two weeks preparing Figaro for tonight's performance and of course it is golf season yet again. Fore! I did run across an interesting post over at the Fool that I thought was worth a cut and paste. I haven't researched the return listed to know if it is accurate or not, but nevertheless, it does make one think. Tekboy might like the historical implications. Here it is: =============== There are 68 Reasons why people did not invest in the stock market. 1934 Depression 1935 Spanish civil War 1936 Economy Still Struggling 1937 Recession 1938 War Clouds Gather 1939 War in Europe 1940 France Falls 1941 Pearl Harbour 1942 Wartime Price Controls 1943 Industry Mobilizes 1944 Consumer Goods Shortages 1945 Post-war Recession Predicted 1946 Dow Tops 200 - Market Too High 1947 Cold War Begins; 1948 Berlin Blockade 1949 Russia Explodes A-Bomb 1950 Korean War; 1951 Excess Profits Tax 1952 US Seizes Steel Mills 1953 Russia Explodes H-Bomb 1954 Dow Tops 300 - Market Too High 1955 Eisenhower Illness 1956 Suez Crisis 1957 Russia Launches Sputnik 1958 Recession 1959 Castro Seizes Power in Cuba 1960 Russia Downs U-2 Plane 1961 Berlin Wall Erected 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis 1963 Kennedy Assassinated 1964 Gulf of Tonkin 1965 Civil Rights Marches 1966 Vietnam War Escalates 1967 Newark Race Riots 1968 USS Pueblo Seized; 1969 Money Tightens - Markets Fall 1970 Cambodia Invaded - Vietnam War Spreads 1971 Wage Price Freeze 1972 Largest U.S. Trade Deficit Ever 1973 Energy Crisis 1974 Steepest Market Drop in Four Decades 1975 Clouded Economic Prospects 1976 Economic Recovery Slows 1977 Market Slumps 1978 Interest Rates Rise 1979 Oil Prices Skyrocket 1980 Interest Rates at All-Time High 1981 Steep Recession Begins 1982 Worst Recession in 40 Years 1983 Market Hits New Highs 1984 Record Federal Deficits 1985 Economic Growth Slows 1986 Dow Nears 2000 1987 Record Setting Market Decline 1988 Election Year 1989 October Mini-Crash 1990 Persian Gulf Crisis 1991 Communism Tumbles with the Berlin Wall 1992 Global Recession 1993 Health Care Reform 1994 Fed Raises Interest Rates SIX Times 1995 Dow Tops 5000 1996 Dow Tops 6000 1997 Hong Kong reverts to China 1998 Asian Economic 'Flu' 1999 NASDAQ High Tech Index doubles in a year 2000 Tech stocks crash But did you know that $10,000 invested in the stock market (Standard & Poor's 500 Index) in January of 1934 would have been worth over $20,820,656 in December 2000? Year after year, people think of reasons why they should not invest in the market. And year after year, the market outperforms virtually all other investment opportunities. =============== We won't all be around to see the next 68 reasons 'not to invest', but I would imagine in the year 2066, investors will be able to look back and see the above list updated to include yet another similar list of reasons as well as similar returns (if those returns are accurate in an attempt to hypothesize about an index in 1934 to 2000). Of course, Grandpa didn't have $10K to invest in 1934. However he might have a few $10K's in 2001 that will benefit his children and grandchildren and great grandchildren if invested today. What will we list for the year 2001 as a reason not to invest? Recession? Hoof and mouth? Fuel prices? Mad cow? Argentina? FED lowers rates 4+ times? Bush's tax plan passes? Economic growth slows? Telecom's debt issues? Tech stocks continue to crash extending the historical losses? Economy still struggling? Oil is up? Oil is down? Inventory related issues? How about the age old 'Middle East' crisis? Spy plane lands in China? California lives without AC? "The Wedding Planner" becomes a well loved movie? Or will it be....Buckley gets a cell phone? BB

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (42210)	4/28/2001 8:09:04 AM
From: tekboy	Respond to of 54805

Has it struck anyone how quiet it's gotten around here? ... I'd be interested in your opinions as to why this has happened The hogs are dead, the bears post elsewhere, and the bulls have come to such correct but depressing revelations as this: Message 15726553 The bubble was more exciting. No bubble, no fun. tekboy/Ares@maturitysucks.com PS the success of the "CC for dummies" thread is further evidence for this thesis...

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (42210)	4/28/2001 8:39:07 AM
From: Jason W	Respond to of 54805

UF, It could be as simple as a beautiful spring in the Northeast. Being outdoors is much healthier than being online. Have a great weekend, Jason W

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (42210)	4/28/2001 9:02:07 AM
From: alanballow	Respond to of 54805

This inactivity would mark a bottom. The lack of interest would be the flip side of Bernard Baruch recognizing a top when the shoe-shine boy or newsie gave him a stock tip. alan@youwantfrieswiththat?.com

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (42210)	4/28/2001 11:28:54 AM
From: DaYooper	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

I'd be interested in your opinions as to why this has happened 1. We've all been humbled and are not feeling too talkative. 2. We've experienced only heartache when giving advice over the last year. 3. The G&K-ness of the candidates has pretty much been rehashed exhaustively. 4. Spring is in the air!!! Yes!!!

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (42210)	4/28/2001 1:23:41 PM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

I am posting from the local library in Orange County, CA., they allow 60 minutes a day of Internet time. I leave for Honolulu on Monday, will stay at the local "Y" until I find a place in Waikiki. I am shipping my computer and printer. Cost me $75 to get it packaged, and the airline will ship it with me for a $75 fee.Two large, 2 ft square boxes! Frank, I think we are all a little numb over this market. Up a good bit this last few weeks, but where do we go from here? Well, I will be off line for about a week, I guess.

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (42210)	4/28/2001 6:08:34 PM
From: Tom Ardnij	Respond to of 54805

Hi Frank, I absolutely agree with the poster who suggested that the lack of activity might well represent a contrarian indicator. I very much suspect that most posters prefer the really good times that enable talking about ongoing successes. The inventory overhang that is staggering our companies certainly is taking much of the joy away from the discussion. The lack of posters just might reflect more evidence of a bottoming out process. Best Regards, Tom

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (42210)	4/29/2001 3:43:31 PM
From: Pirah Naman	Respond to of 54805

Frank, I'm glad you brought this up. I was wondering where all of you went. The funny thing is, there has been less posting since the rally then when things were at their worst. Maybe everybody is breathless? Slight change of topic. Mike Buckley has done that wonderful tracking of the Front Office Game, but it seems to have coalesced in the sense that there is one company left (for practical purposes). I wonder what other games we could identify and track? It seems like there is more honing in on individual future winners than on examining baskets. I recognize some dislike the basket approach (and I've sure never done it), but it would seem a good thing for discussion. - Pirah