Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerome who wrote (45988)	4/28/2001 11:20:54 AM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Respond to of 70976

>> You sitting on the sidelines with all your friends have helped to make us all poorer. What kind of buy signal are you looking for? << Well, I am right there, poorer like everyone else. Regarding buy signal, I am fully invested right now. My working assumption is the December bottom will hold. Also that the current trading range will hold until at least the next earnings season, and maybe extend to October. As many have pointed out, the semi-equip vendors will be last in the chain to get new orders. First consumer electronics sales (Dell, Compaq, Palm, Sony, etc...) have to increase, then telecom has to revive, then fab-less chip makers like Altera, then LSI, AMD, NSM, and only after that the equip makers. If you recall the '97 - '98 period. In early '98 AMAT, TER, KLAC .... all revived, then had a lower bottom after the Y98Q1 reports came out. The reason was that they were still burning backlog. So of course with book to bill way below 1, backlogs will be smaller in the Q2 reports. I don't expect lower bottoms, but I think this expectation will keep exuberance in check. So for me it is short term trading (sell the rallies, buy the dips) to at least July, and more likely September. I do enjoy all the posts here. Though really I don't have anything technical to say. Regards, Sarmad