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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bilow who wrote (71088)	4/28/2001 1:28:23 AM
From: The Prophet	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Unbelievable. Here was the bet, and your acceptance. You want to back out, it's up to you: THE BET siliconinvestor.com To:Bilow who wrote (69138) From: The Prophet Monday, Mar 26, 2001 1:49 AM View Replies (6) \| Respond to of 71088 So, since we're making predictions, let me see if I have this straight. You claim: RDRAM > 1.5 * SDRAM DDR = 1.1 * SDRAM Ergo: RDRAM > 1.36 DDR So your prediction is that RMBS will not get cheaper than 36% more than DDR. Alright, I'll take that bet, too. Hope you're keeping score. THE ACCEPTANCE: siliconinvestor.com To:The Prophet who wrote (69140) From: Bilow Monday, Mar 26, 2001 1:56 AM View Replies (3) \| Respond to of 71088 Hi The Prophet; Okay, the only restriction is that RDRAM prices are allowed to briefly dip below that limit due to over production issues, but such gluts will not last longer than 3 months. Prices to be achieved over the next 12 months, agreed? The anotherr issue is that Rambus longs frequently want the price of the cheapest variety of RDRAM to be compared to the most expensive variety of DDR or SDRAM. To settle that, the versions of DDR, RDRAM and SDRAM are the highest currently more or less common in shipping product. That means PC800, PC133, and PC2100, no particular latency. Agreed? Also, these are DIMM prices, not the individual chips, and the DIMM size is to be the 256MB, which will be the most common density for SDRAM and DDR one year from now. For RDRAM, you can use either the 256MB or twice the price of the 128MB size, whichever suits your fancy, as RDRAM more frequently comes with a split bus. Agreed? How's about average of lowest 5 prices on PriceWatch, subject to the above constraints. The reason for this that with all three memory types, there is a tendency for certain subtypes to be extraordinarily expensive. But the cheapest types are more likely to be what is natural for a PC with a relatively small size memory (i.e. not gigabytes). Agreed? -- Carl

To: Bilow who wrote (71088)	4/28/2001 1:32:40 AM
From: The Prophet	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Here is your own confirmation of our bet. Guess you're having second thoughts, huh? Understandable. Message 15603254 To:The Prophet who wrote (69140) From: Bilow Monday, Apr 2, 2001 11:44 PM View Replies (5) \| Respond to of 71090 Hi The Prophet; About that bet that RDRAM wouldn't get within 36% of DDR pricing over SDRAM... Date SDRAM PC2100 PC800 PC2100 PC800 RDRAM-DDR 03/26/01 $46.20 $188.40 $306.20 +307% +562% +255% 03/29/01 $47.40 $186.80 $306.20 +294% +538% +244% 04/02/01 $45.20 $164.00 $293.20 +263% +549% +286% Maybe it wasn't such a good idea to take this sort of a bet with a guy who's been specifying DRAM into products for 15 years. For further insight into the current situation, and why the trend is already severely against you, read the following four posts: #reply-15329994 , #reply-15441977 , #reply-15355134 and #reply-15330514 . Oh, and by the way, there are now 190 DDR motherboard SKUs on PriceWatch. A few weeks ago when there were only 125 I asked "Any bets on when the number of DDR motherboard SKUs will be double that of RDRAM motherboards?" #reply-15497270 and jr_not_ewing responded "NEVER" #reply-15497346 . Now the question is when there will be three times as many DDR motherboard SKUs on PriceWatch as RDRAM motherboard SKUs, and the answer appears to be around a few weeks from now or so. And all this is before the roll out of the VIA, SiS, ALi and Intel DDR chipsets for the P4. -- Carl P.S. Data sources: Old Data: #reply-15586173 New Data: 4/02/01 PC133: $ 45, 45, 45, 45, 46 --> $ 45.20 PC2100: $104, 178, 179, 179, 180 --> $164.00 +263% PC800: $289, 291, 292, 297, 297 --> $293.20 +549% pricewatch.com