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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike M who wrote (76120)	4/28/2001 11:40:05 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Unless, of course, the feds are "pushing on a string". (g). Zeev

To: Mike M who wrote (76120)	4/28/2001 10:55:22 PM
From: s berg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Agree about 30 year bond. Seems more like 30 year flood in terms of being a good time to go long. On the other hand the hardest part of investing for me is extrapolating from the past to the future given that the present is so different from the past. At the beginning of the 80s there was as far as I know no precedent in history for what turned out to be one of the greatest opportunities ever, zero yield stocks (i.e. the nasdaq). Economists like Schiller were arguing that most investment return historically derived from yield. The economic cycle over 5-10 year spans is radically different from what it used to be, intervals between recessions are at unprecedented length. Much of the past history of the Fed concerns fighting the more frequent recessions of earlier decades that don't happen anymore. Dangerous IMHO to extrapolate to Fed fighting trying to avert a downturn after a decade of growth in a radically restructured service / tech economy. The biggest wildcard is the Q of whether having less cyclical recessions over 5-10 year spans has any bearing on the longer 20 year cycle of secular bull and bear market environments. The fed cannot change demographics or lower commodity prices such as energy. Very long term we have always had cycles of decades of high inflation and rising crime rates alternating with decades of lower inflation and falling crime rates. Alan Greenspan is no crime fighter. The issue may not be us fighting the Fed but rather whether the Fed is impotent to fight a secular bear. Mike M said, Thanks for the 2 sites. They are very helpful. It doesn't look good for the long bond, does it? Perhaps the recent up tick in shorts on the S&P index is for a short move into May. We will see after that but it is hard to fight the FED and win.