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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David who wrote (12384)	4/30/2001 6:02:13 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78614

David, re: BL. I've started to reestablish my small position. I've kept BL on my watch list, but missed an opportunity after I wavered when it was under 17 recently. I'll start with some today though at $17.50; I'll assume that if there's any random fluctuations with the stock, I'll be able to get the bulk of my purchase at better prices. I just would rather be in now it for a small amount than out of it totally. Negatives with BL that I see are: A business mainly of "fashion apparel for men and women" through catalog sales. Fashion as determined by corporate headquarters in Warren, PA (-gg-). They say they intend to increase revenues over this decade, but historically, revenues seem stuck (flat) at 500M + or -. This stock was a Graham net-net when Jim Clarke discussed it (if I recall correctly), but it is not now. And even if it were, there'd be reasonable belief by many here that, because we're talking clothing fashion and retail, for our net-net purposes any inventory $$ in current assets really ought to be reduced substantially more than what BL shows. BL reported a net loss today. They may have additional problems and unexpected costs in trying to integrate several new initiatives: improvements to their order processes, consolidation of facilities, and outsourcing of some activities. OTOH, those flat revenues are revenues and the company can show profits from their endeavors. BL was the first catalog retailer and they're still around and still profitable most recent years. Book value has increased over the past few years, there's steady, small amounts of insider buying as you've said, no ltd, and 60c dividend which provides a reasonable 3.3% yield. I'll bet that the stock is closer to lows than to highs. When times are good again, and people are optimistic about BL (if that is even possible -g-), then I'd expect the stock to again be bid up to .85 or 1x book value. I'm assuming a lousy year this year for BL's earnings, but I'd be looking for maybe 25.5 or better on the stock sometime in 18 months when BL's big initiatives are better understood and I hope, contributing to improved business results. jmo, Paul Senior I'll get one of their catalogs. Maybe if I actually saw what they've got I wouldn't be so sniffy about their "fashion" merchandise.