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To: yard_man who wrote (98502)	4/30/2001 5:09:02 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

1. re. the housing numbers, see Bronson remark (which, i might add, is strongly supported by both anecdotal as well as some concrete evidence. i'm going to put up a few RE related charts, specifically those showing the rapid deterioration in the commercial property markets of the major cities on my web site shortly): <<Subject: RE: [lwside1] home sales strong, durable goods also - what gives? Thanx, Gary, but we view all of this as much about very little. What is amazing is that how little both existing and new homes sales have grown from their highs in 1999 and 1998, respectively. Today's much more favorable interest rates environment should not be creating the subnormal growth that has, and is occurring. Our work suggests that recent sales were borrowed from the future, and that both types of home sales will be quite soft this summer, on a seasonally adjusted basis. For example, IYR, ishares for the real estate sector, is below where it first peaked seven to nine months ago - see attached .gif chart. So if sales are so great then why are there no capital gains anticipating this so-called "surprising" strength, especially if the market mind thought the growth was sustainable? Furthermore, IYR has significantly under performed the rest of the market since the April 4 market lows, so that its previous relative strength is fading - and quite fast in light of today's report. We fully expect that relative weakness in the real estate sector will emerge very soon, and that it will confirm the pervasive effects of the extant recession in the manufacturing and hi-tech sectors spreading throughout the US economy and triggering a global contagion. Bob Bronson Bronson Capital Markets Research>> re. FNM, Buffett recently sold it: Omaha, Nebraska, April 28 ( Bloomberg ) -- Billionaire investor Warren Buffett said that potential ``icebergs'' in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac prompted Berkshire to sell shares in the government sponsored entities. Berkshire last year sold nearly all of its 8 1/2 percent stake of Freddie Mac, the No. 2 buyer of U.S. mortgages, and an undetermined amount of Fannie Mae. Buffett said he decided to sell the shares after he became ``uncomfortable'' with the risks at the two largest buyers of U.S. mortgages. ``We felt the risk profile had changed somewhat, we're quite sensitive to risk in banks, insurance companies or government- sponsored entities, there's so much you don't know,'' said Buffett. ``We're never sure if there's an iceberg situation or not. We figured we'd never see it until it's too late.'' quote.bloomberg.com so yes, i remain short. however, my stop is situated not far above current levels...so i may be stopped out. my opinion of the LT wave structure hasn't changed. 2) that depends entirely on the index one is looking at. the NDX so far topped on April 20. imo May 2 will very likely be a cycle high for the index aggregate. 3) the GDP report DID contain a very strong deflator...a full 130 bps. over the reported 'growth rate'. so it was an inflationary report. imo this is however still part of the 'false spring' - the cyclical inflation episode that precedes secular deflation. that is not to say it can't get out of hand a little for a while. gasoline prices are e.g. exploding: tfc-charts.w2d.com