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To: Lucretius who wrote (98506)	4/29/2001 5:29:36 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Contrary Investor -- good point: >>The current announced layoff experience of the last three months has no precedent in US history. It is now showing up in real unemployment claims numbers. We've been convinced that the lag this go around has been due to the Warn Act (requires 60 days notice to laid off employees) that was not in effect during the last recession. The Fed may believe it's a two quarter inventory adjustment. The Street may believe it's a two quarter inventory correction. Unfortunately, corporate managements are signaling that this is anything but a two quarter inventory adjustment. After all, it makes absolutely no sense at all to dismiss the numbers of employees being handed walking papers today, given the significant costs in finding and training employees over the last few years, if second half 2001 economic recovery was to be realized. It was only 12 months ago that Cisco was handing out multi-thousand dollar bonuses to current employees who found someone from the outside to join up. Now this same company is in the process of getting rid of 20% of its workforce. Corporate managements are telegraphing to us that they are simply scared silly that the current corporate profits recession will be much longer and deeper than the strategist folks on Wall Street or the Fed governors would have you believe. For our investment dollar, we want to be on the same side of the table as corporate insiders. <<