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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vitas who wrote (76184)	4/29/2001 11:17:40 PM
From: American Spirit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

These suddenly lofty PE's are extremely misleading. A stoppage of orders in December-January was a phenomenon which will not likely be repeated. The market (well longs anyway) is betting on a recovery sometime during the 2nd half. When better earnings follow the PE's will come way back down again. If you believe earnings will not improve then by all means sell and short but I listened to several CEO's astounded by the suddenness of the stoppage. It will pick up again. Still I'm not saying we're going to the moon here. Never have. Just a nice modest recovery rally (correction really) with underdogs outperforming because they were shorted nearly into the ground. I see NOVL at 237 PE for instance. That's insane. Looks really expensive at first glance. Well look again. My buy of NOVL at 4.10 was based on the fact they have 3.65 in cash/land/stocks and so the company was selling for forty-five cents. Now it sells for a buck. Either way that's insanely undervalued too. Unless of course you believe in the worst case scenario. Or if you like low PE's look at VZ and WCOM. Or some of the oil companies. Bottomline PE's are all out of whack right now just it's just a temporary phenomenon. Look at market cap vs. cash/other hard assets/revenues/profits. That's how I calcuclate value now.

To: Vitas who wrote (76184)	5/4/2001 10:30:10 PM
From: Vitas	Respond to of 99985

Kentucky Derby Doseage Index Dual Qualifiers: chef-de-race.com 9 124 A P VALENTINE -52 A.P. INDY 8.72 8.59 13.5 ALYDAR 8.28 8.08 11.3 BOLD RULER P/P 10 - 4 - 20 - 2 - 2 1.71 0.47 NAKATANI ZITO PITINO/TABOR 10 116 DOLLAR BILL -37 PEAKS AND VALLEYS 8.50 * 8.50 * 0.0 SARATOGA SIX 8.11 7.97 0.0 BLUSHING GROOM P/P 4 - 3 - 10 - 1 - 0 2.00 0.56 DAY STEWART WEST 17 125 POINT GIVEN -65 THUNDER GULCH 8.36 8.36 0.0 TURKOMAN 9.05 9.31 9.1 RAISE A NATIVE P/P 8 - 0 - 8 - 0 - 0 3.00 1.00 STEVENS BAFFERT THOROUGHBRED CORP.