Uh-oh, I guess we could have picked a better time to schedule a trip to Disneyland..
Energy officials fear a powerless May
Declining energy supplies, plant closures and rising temperatures could make for a dark month
Published Tuesday, May 1, 2001, in the Contra Costa Newspapers
SACRAMENTO -- California's journey through a difficult summer of blackouts begins with the start of May, a month state officials concede is a dangerous and unpredictable prelude to what lies ahead.
And they have reason to fear. The state's electricity supplies are waning, thanks to a slew of plants going down for maintenance or repairs at the same time temperatures are rising and peak power demand is expected to jump by 32 percent.
From the situation room where managers monitor the power grid to the state Capitol, government officials are saying the same thing: May spells trouble. In fact, many believe May could produce more blackouts than the hotter months that follow.
"I think we'd call it the largest challenge," said Steve Maviglio, press secretary to Gov. Gray Davis. "It's a month, because of temperature fluctuations, that could go either way."
The problem is there's little the state can do should Mother Nature turn up the heat. Conservation programs pushed by lawmakers, including the governor's request that Californians reduce consumption by 20 percent, don't kick into gear until June, and several new power plants under construction won't be ready to go until midsummer.
Some new peaker plants, facilities used just during the summer or when supply runs short, should be added to the grid the first week of June, Maviglio said.
"We're very concerned about this month," said Assemblyman Fred Keeley, D-Santa Cruz. "It depends on the weather, and it depends on consumers. If consumers are careful and thoughtful about their energy use, maybe we can get through this with minimal disruption. Really, more than anything else, it's up to people's individual behavior."
Why does May present such a problem? It represents the month when California's power usage peaks climb from 31,000 megawatts, where it has remained for most of winter, to 42,000 megawatts, according to a forecast from the Independent System Operator, the agency that runs the state grid.
During the peak of summer, the state electricity load tops out near 50,000 megawatts. One megawatt provides enough electricity for roughly a thousand homes. When the weather gets hot, about 30 percent of state power usage is due to air conditioners.
At the same time demand is ramping up, supply has been cut back. About 13,000 megawatts of generation are not in production because the plants are making repairs or face other problems.
Included in that figure are many alternative energy generators, those who use the wind or the environment or run co-generation with natural gas, that remain out of operation because they have not been paid for months for contracts with the state's two troubled utility companies, Southern California Edison and Pacific Gas & Electric.
Two major nuclear power plants also have temporarily shut down units. The Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant in San Luis Obispo took a 1,150-megawatt unit out of service Sunday to begin the 35-day process of refueling it.
An 1,100-megawatt unit at San Onofre in San Diego County has been down since February after an electrical fire. It's not expected back on line until mid-June.
Adding to the state's troubles is a drought in Washington and Oregon, two states that California traditionally relies upon during the summer. Less water means less hydropower from the Northwest to ship to the Golden State.
"If we get a real heat spell for a couple of days, we could be really in the soup," said Patrick Dorinson, a spokesman for the ISO.
Snowpack levels on California's mountains ended winter April 1 at 40 percent below average, meaning less water to run off into rivers and reservoirs that feed electricity-generating dams.
"In large part it's going to have to do with the weather," said Claudia Chandler, assistant director at the state Energy Commission. "June is still a tight month, and in July it loosens up a little bit."
Maviglio, the governor's press secretary, said Davis is hoping for the best and preparing for the worst. But he added: "May may bring a reality check." |
