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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: American Spirit who wrote (76217)	4/30/2001 12:36:06 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

A.S., What I find interesting is the increases in short interest on Nasdaq stocks last month. The short covering rallies in certain stocks were so predictable--Ciena, JNPR types. Shorts had just gotten so aggressive and that seems to start reversing itself now on a broader scale. Just reading a lot of message boards as indicators is also leading me that conclusion. Once this current move up stalls (and if it is big gain as I believe), I would be a little cautious...but I don't see the market coming to that point in the near term. When short interest declines, I am planning to take some gains. Expecting a decline in mid May numbers. Mutual fund cash levels, high short interest, asset allocation shifts from bonds to stocks, increasing investor confidence and better economic data is a key factor in getting money inflows into tech stocks....and that seems to be the way it is playing out.

To: American Spirit who wrote (76217)	4/30/2001 12:41:05 PM
From: eichler	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

A.S. I would not go that far to say "the bear is dead", though I can see the hope and greed emanating from the charts. I am thinking a good week (3-4 days) before the next wave of profit-taking. Also, should my 2400 target on $compx be realized (62% retrace off the the 1/31 top to the 4/4 low), I would be very alert for a candle stick signal (shooting star, doji, etc.) to stand aside, protecting profits realized. CNBC does not (IMO) have a whole lot of credibility, they are the main medium to herd the sheep in the desired direction by the powers that be. Good to be aware of, dangerous to place one's compete trust. Truth is the economy is in some serious trouble, saw an eye-opening table showing a correlation between highest % gaining days in the Naz and Dow and their respective worst bear markets in history. So far, $compx is following the path of circa 1930 dow. Still, rallies are rallies. When the charts say go, I go. When they say stop, I stop. Pure and simple. Blindly following the dogma of any mind-set (bear or bull) will lead to ruin. Ain't gonna let that happen to me! Appreciate your cordial tone, speaks well of you, regardless of our differences. I meant it when I said I hope you make millions. I never wish ill on anyone, karma inevitably pays back with interest. Best of luck in your trading. Eichler BTW, the comp needs to break-out higher from its current position, breaking the trend-line connecting the 1/24, 4/20 highs in order to to achieve the next level. Looking good so far, buyer beware!