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To: Kelvin Taylor who wrote (8798)	4/30/2001 2:11:40 PM
From: Tom Hua	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 19633

Kelvin, Dow weakening, what happened? Yeah I think CCMP had its daily run. Time for it to bend over. Regards, Tom

To: Kelvin Taylor who wrote (8798)	4/30/2001 2:44:05 PM
From: Tom Hua	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19633

Kelvin, tomorrow's April auto sales figures will tell a very different story from what we've heard since Friday. Regards, Tom Thursday April 26 10:57 AM ET Vehicle Sales Seen Down, Confidence Ebbs By Michael Ellis DETROIT (Reuters) - After three months of surprisingly strong U.S. automotive sales, it seems many American consumers pocketed their check books and stayed away from new car and truck dealerships in April. Finally reflecting the drop-off in U.S. consumer confidence (news - web sites) levels, results from automakers due Tuesday will show U.S. car and light truck sales fell 8 to 12 percent in April to their weakest levels since December, industry experts say. ``It appears that the next shoe to drop is dropping. April is clearly coming in weaker than expected,'' said John Casesa, an analyst with Merrill Lynch. Even as they continued to ratchet up cash-back rebates and other incentives, sales for the traditional Big Three automakers, General Motors Corp. (NYSE:GM - news), Ford Motor Co. (NYSE:F - news) and DaimlerChrysler AG's (NYSE:DCX - news)(DCXGn.DE) Chrysler brands -- excluding GM's Saab and Ford's Jaguar, Land Rover and Volvo import brands -- are expected to have fallen by double digits. Chrysler, which on Wednesday reported an operating loss of about $1.2 billion in the first quarter, is seen taking the biggest beating, with sales seen down from 15 percent to more than 20 percent, analysts said. The weaker results could spur the Big Three to cut vehicle production forecasts for the second quarter, which would hurt earnings and employment, analysts said. Conversely, Japan's Toyota Motor Corp. (news - web sites) (7203.T) and Honda Motor Co. (news - web sites) (7267.T) as well as the Korean automakers should continue to pick up market share, analysts said. When consumer confidence began its steep drop in January following a slowdown in the U.S. economy, analysts confidently predicted a drop-off in auto sales, only to be surprised by the actual results. First-quarter U.S. light vehicle sales beat all expectations, coming in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of about 17.3 million units. Now April sales are expected to drop to between 15.9 million and 16.5 million, analysts said. That's down from a record 18 million in April last year. ``Wealth Is Evaporating'' The widely watched University of Michigan consumer confidence index dropped a steeper-than-expected 3.7 in April to 87.8 in April, its lowest level in more than seven years. A similar gauge conducted by the U.S. Conference Board (news - web sites) slid sharply in April to a 4-1/2-year low. ``Announced layoffs are rising, manufacturing and technology appear to be in or near recession, household wealth is evaporating and the savings rate is at a 50-year low,'' analyst Gary Lapidus of Goldman Sachs wrote in a research report. Actual results for April this year may better the reported figures. Some dealers included April 1 sales in March totals. That effectively discounts one of the 25 selling days in April, which could hurt reported results by about 4 percent, analysts said. On the other hand, the U.S. Federal Reserve (news - web sites) surprised all with a sudden half-point cut in interest rates on April 18, after the consumer confidence surveys were conducted. In addition, the U.S. Commerce Department (news - web sites) said on Wednesday that U.S. home sales rose at a record rate in March, contradicting the consumer confidence surveys. ``Actions have been speaking louder than words for some time now,'' said Diane Swonk, chief economist with Bank One Corp. in Chicago, who is predicting an April sales rate of 16.5 million units. Rising gasoline prices, topping $2 a gallon in Chicago and San Francisco, are expected to have no impact on sales. But analysts fear that if the trend continues, some consumers may buy smaller vehicles, or worse, it could hurt the U.S. economy, which would impact sales further. Most analysts expect sales to continue to soften in the second and third quarters. Ford Chief Financial Officer Henry Wallace said earlier this month that he expects sales to bottom this summer before strengthening again on the back of lower interest rates in the fourth quarter. ``I think we're going to see some weakness in the middle quarters of the year,'' he said following the release of Ford's first-quarter earnings on April 19.