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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (20225)	8/11/2001 2:00:26 PM
From: limtex	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 60323

Zeev - I think it was last qtr last year that you first noticed something odd about the revenues/receivable/inventory levels. You were the first that I saw that started talking about what you saw as a problem and what indeed turned out to be the fastest reduction in business in over 65 years. The next person I saw was John Conners from MSFT who at a conference in NY toward the beginning of December said something along the lines of "Last month we suddenly noticed a dramatic fall off in all our businesses around the World". The rest as they say is history. Now we have seen months of corporations hunkering down and cutting everything that, litteraly chukcing everything over the side as they trim their companies for cash survival. No expenditure unless it is absolutely necessary. Such a business environment is of course not survivable as each cut is magnified down the chain and results in a furthe tightening of the screw. This is the environment of the early 30s and hasn't been seen since until today and that is why the landscape is so unfamiliar to all the comentators. The fact that it is and was unnecessary being only a product of one mans irrational obsession with the NAZ is of course irrelevant. Anyway I haven't posted you for some time and you seem ot have quite a feel for things, somehow less emotional than MM who yesteday said that expected unemployment ot rise to between 9% and 12%. I had to go off to the Dept of Labor site to find that the highest unemployment had been was 10.8% inthe early 80s and that since 1948! Still I just thought that I would post you once again to see how you see things now. It is your feel for the state of business that I would really like to hear as my view is that all other factors like sort term rallies and retests of April lows and double bottoms or triple bottoms etc are all functions of the awful business climate and that the market just is not going to improve until there is some reall evidence that business is improving. So in a word ..is it? Or perhaps ...will it? Best regards, L