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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Magnatizer who wrote (6544)	5/1/2001 10:21:35 PM
From: Magnatizer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

In light of the recent activity on the SA thread I am going to post a copy of the commentary which I post on a daily basis. If anyone is interested in the charts associated with the commentary (I feel it also reads easier on my page as it is formated and key points highlighted) they will need to visit here: geocities.com Under Charts and Daily commentary section. There are hotlinks to each chart. I updated this commentary most every trading day. Unless I am on vacation or ill. 5.1.01 Magnet supports and resistance spreadsheet SPX (Wide Variety, Large Cap): SP 500 mags (Left side is magnet horizontals, right is magnet trendlines) SP recent mag trendlines (Magnet trendlines from 1990 on) SP 500 close up (SPX recent mag tlines in a close up perspective) SP strong mags (SPX strong mag horizontals and trendlines) 4.28.01: Of note is the failure to reach 1266 neutral zone prior to losing the 1231 weak mag over the past two weeks. If it fails to reach 1266 prior to losing 1231 again the 932.2 horizontal once again becomes the forest view target. SPX moved up into Friday's magnet trendline cross. Likely to fire a sell signal early this week. Buy signal is a close above 1253.1. Sell signal is close below 1234.5. There is a cross coming this Friday as well. 4.30.01: The 1266 neutral zone got a real good workout this morning. Basically held resistance from near open to post lunch. Must maintain contact with 1266 over next few days else 1231 weak horizontal is going to be really pushed to it's limits to hold SPX up. The bar which formed today indicates a top is likely. Combo with the move up into last Friday's cross and I do not hold a high hope of 1266 holding market up. I am flat SP here awaiting a cross day signal. SP gave magnet cross buy signal on close today. I was not around to actually take the signal in my real account. I am calling SP long with stop of close below 4/27/01 low. The 1266 neutral zone is sticky. Looking for SPX to make a move away from it into Friday's cross. That should create a pretty solid top and start a pullback into the mid May triple cross. Currently 1300ish looks to be stiff overhead but this move has had much more power then I thought it would all the way up from the lows. Nas 100 (Large Cap Techs): Nas 100 mags 4.26.01: Magnet trendline cross was today. Magnet Trendline Cross rules post explains the standard rules for playing the crosses. 4.28.01: Correction to 4.26.01 commentary. Cross occurred on Friday (as reported 4.23.01 and noted in last weeks S&R spreadsheet). Sticking with the magnet trendline cross rules. 4.30.01: I took a partial position based on the Magnet trendline cross buy signal today (close over cross day (Friday) high). I am somewhat less then excited about this position but the signal was fired and I HAD to take it. These are often the best plays. Totally against the gut. Guess I should have noted I have long bias with stop of close below last Friday's low. No other updates. Dow 30 (Blue Chips): Dow 30 mags 4.24.01: Move has been down into tomorrow's cross. Magnet Trendline Cross rules post explains the standard rules for playing the crosses. I have been known to jump the gun on these situations. As the dow has moved down into the cross, while at the same time holding a majority of the gains from 4/18/01... I want dow LONG. I will likely jump in tomorrow in the 10374-10416 area. Only going to enter part position and will fill the bucket if/when trendline cross rule buy signal is fired. 4.25.01: Partial long position entered today. I am very ansy to get long here. Trying to wait for actual mag tline cross buy signal to fire but it will be tough. Very similar to SP 500 in that this move needs immediate follow through. Bulls are in control and need to let the bears know that their shorts are going to be PINCHED. 4.26.01: Not the most impressive follow through but a magnet trendline cross day buy signal was fired today. I added to my long position today but not a full bucket load. 4.28.01: Took profits in part of dow long position near close Friday. Reasons outlined in this SI Post. I like Dow best of the big three for long here. Nothing else to add. 4.30.01: Took some more profits out of Dow position early today. Just looked tired after trying to pull away from 10800ish mag downtrend. Topping bar formed today. I am going to try to ride the majority of the long position out through a pullback (if there is one). Emphasis on TRY. Short term indicators did not break their short term uptrends yet. No solid sell signal fired, IMO. If today was a pullback the shorts are in for some real pain in the short term. Still to many bears around for a solid top to form. Dow is set to capitulate a few of them in the next 2-3 days. Russell 2k (Small Caps): Russell 2k mags 4.18.01: Stop hit, flat and neutral Rut. 4.25.01: Rut looks fantastic here. I prefer the Dow and SP but today is a real eye opener for Rut. It has 515 on it's mind. 4.26.01: Rut continues to impress as it's big brothers struggled today. 4.28.01: Just hammering bears in rut land. Still looking at 515s. 4.30.01: Shooting star formed today. Similar to other indexes in it is a likely top. Still looking at 515s before a serious top has potential to form. No updates BKX (Large Cap Banks): BKX mags 4.25.01: Calling BKX long with stop of close below today's low. This one does trouble me but I cannot put my finger on why. Going to stick with the bottom type candle and mag support holding. Initial target is 890s (80% guesstimate) followed by 928.5 (60% guesstimate)... upper 900s (30% guesstimate) 4.30.01: Big bearish engulfing bar today. Topping pattern. BKX had no juice all day. Sticking with the 4.25.01 call. If I were actually in a bank long I would likely have been out of position near close as I prefer protecting profits to risking losses. No updates. CRB (Commodities): CRB mags 4.16.01: Stop hit, flat and neutral CRB here. Hoping I did not get to greedy on my waiting for bottom as 209s may have been all it was willing to give up. I.H.S breakout today. Only hope of buying 209s any time soon would be for this move to fail. Then I may get em as low as 204s. BTK (Biotechs): BTK mags 4.19.01: Calling BTK a short here with stop of close over 4.18.01 high. Short term indicators firing sell signal, BTK put in inside bar. BTK barely closed above it's xmag. All signs point to profit taking by bulls here. 4.23.01: Upper 400s targeted on BTK here. Multiple magnet trendline crosses in the next 2 weeks. Likely choppy action as a result. Take profits on ½ short position if 490 is touched prior to stop hit. 4.30.01: Stop hit. Flat and neutral BTK. No updates. SOX (Semiconductors): SOX mags Gottfried's excellent Semi charts (updated near the end of every month) 4.23.01: Testing new mag trendline. Neutral SOX here. 4.25.01: Calling SOX a long here with stop of close below todays low. 4.26.01: Went long SOX today via call position. Stop is as outlined in yesterday's commentary. No updates. IIX (Large Cap Internets): IIX mags 4.15.01: New mag signal on Thursday. Trendlines noted on chart. Inside bar formed Thursday. Aggressive shorters will hit IIX Monday. I may join them. Not going to make the call yet. In particular I am watching AOL. Tried to position into puts twice last week only to be stopped out. 4.17.01: Tried another small put position in AOL at the close. Several factors lead to the entry: formed a topping bar (shooting star), overcooked short term indicators and 24.25 horizontal mag in need of a test. Other then that, no updates on IIX. 4.18.01: Stop hit on AOL today. I held position. Not a good idea and I hope AOL teaches me a lesson and wipes the puts out to a 0 value. Overriding predefined stops is NEVER a good idea. Other then that, no updates. 4.19.01: Woke up today and took the AOL put position off the table early on. Other then that, no updates. 4.23.01: Xmag uptrend lost today. Short with stop of close over today's high is how I see IIX. Stop hit. Flat and neutral IIX. XOI (Oil): XOI mags 4.25.01: Stop hit, flat and neutral XOI here. SUN stop was not hit today but I expect it will be tomorrow. 4.26.01: That SUN short is a fighter. Won't give up the stop. XOI is very impressive here. I will be buying a dip which resets short term technicals. 4.28.01: SUN was right at stop on close Friday. I held position. XOI looks ready for some retrace here. Magnet trendline cross approaching on May 8. Likely sideways/down into it. No updates. DJTrany (Top 20 transport companies): Dow Jones Transports Mags 4.25.01: Another one that does not feel right but the factors are there. Trany long here with stop of close below today's low (no more then 1/2 bucket load on this one). No updates. US Dollar: US Dollar mags (continuous chart) 4.15.01: Making it's debut on the market magnets commentary is the US Dollar. I am using a continuous chart of the futures. The values will differ from the actual futures but it is the only way to perform long term analysis. Topping pattern confirmed on Thursday with overhead magnet trendline holding resistance on Wednesday. I like US dollar short with stop of close above Wednesday's high. Current target is in the 103s. No updates