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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: eichler who wrote (76244)	4/30/2001 5:22:58 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

eichler, Did hear something about an analyst at Lehman brothers (someone named Levy)saying that the telecom equipment stocks will bottom within a month or two. That is the first bullish comment I have heard in months. His reasoning was the recent confirmation of decreases in capital budgets among the carriers and the stocks are not going down...or something to that effect. I had avoided the equipment providers..."weakest link" in the tech sector. If by chance the sector starts to move up, we may see the possibility of major moves in the communication chip stocks like PMCS, AMCC, VTSS as they are smaller and have smaller floats. Wonder if the analyst comments were playing into the stock prices today. These seemed the biggest gainers in the sector. It also seems that the baby bells or carriers (like WCOM)are not getting helped by rate cuts the way one would have expected. Seems borrowing costs have even actually increased as Greenspan was cutting. They have less competition from the clecs but interest rates are not helping; the borrowing costs are not dropping. That is a strange twist! There is however, increasing competition from wireless carriers. Some like Leap Wireless (LWIN) actually provide flat fee wireless service to consumers and businesses within small cities. Overall, the market is hard to figure out on the last day of month as there may be some manipulation of stock prices today--down or up..don't know. I guess we may get our answer tomorrow. I am watching for news out of the Dell presentation after the market (not webcast, to the best of my knowledge). It could set the tone tomorrow. Afterhours trades around 6 to 6:30 will probably give some clues.

To: eichler who wrote (76244)	4/30/2001 8:40:36 PM
From: American Spirit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Telecom debt: rate cuts help a lot. Yes big debt used for build-out of infrastructures but they all have steady revenues from these assets so they're big fat cash machines which can afford debt as well as dividend paymentss. I'm avoiding T and Q which leveraged up at the height of the market (and for a few other reasons) but the others look fine at these prices. Surprised they're not running yet. I'm sure they will. VZ, WCOM and FON all planning IPO's, spinoffs etc. to unlock value and raise cash. WCOM and FON will be involved in some kind of consolidation. VZ in the best position of all of them andlast the lowest PE. Sheer dominance across the board and unaffected by the recession. SBC also powerfully positioned and undervalued. Don't take my word for it but these are as close to risk-free investments as you can find in this market. All sitting near their bottoms with strong futures.