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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Shack who wrote (1395)	4/30/2001 5:39:55 PM
From: American Spirit	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 209892

To answer your question, I believe the big hedge funds shorting the market saw bad internet-related earnings coming and kept shorting through February-March and their succes became a self-fulfilling prophecy for the markets when more and more traders went short and ganged up on any bulls who dared to enter. Great malaise and fear were created. Adding to the already numb public feelings from the election snag (a traumatic destabilizing event for America). It snow-balled bad news creating more bad news until THE BIG LIE as I call it, when short gangs went so far as to announce the imminent bankruptcy of LU the most widely held stock in the world. That was the climactic turning-point event which exposed the other BIG LIES. Thousands of short bashers were caught off-guard and are still being caught. In fact some may not capitulate and go long until it's too late. Yes the techs needed a pounding but not that severe. Notice IBM, MSFT, GE, VZ, AAPL, DELL, PSFT, EDS and others turned out to be in fine shape. Only those with great exposure to the net got caught with their pants down. But egven AOL did great and ELNK not bad either. But by then (March low) IPO cash-rich micros had been taken far below their cash value. So except for a few non-survivors the rest were ready to double or triple back to fair value. Now, we see NT, CSCO etc. still down near their lows. But the new leaders are the value-rich more solid companies. They are leading us out of the hole and the little guys are finally getting their valuations corrected upward. Even disasters like LU have shown that nothing was as bad as it seemed. That's why it's rebounded 80% and will continue to recover to the mid teens IMHO. Also there are going to be more and more buy-outs. And Fed cuts too. Another full point down we can expect. That is very-very cheap money and like it or not, DON'T FIGHT THE FED. The sumemr however could be topsy-turvy, a big long bear-bull fight. But I think bulls are fine until the next cut on the 15th. I'm betting everything I have (except my house) on that.