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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TREND1 who wrote (15206)	4/30/2001 8:02:46 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

Larry: Re: "Many CEO's say the drop happened in 60 days, so maybe the recovery will show up in 60 days." I think you will get an uptick in the next few months and the market will interpret this as a turn but I doubt it will be much of a business turn. This is all landing now in Asia and Europe so even as we might turn in the US, they will be in a downward phase. Europe is in denial. It thinks it is an island of prosperity. At least Greenspan did not think this of the United States. Now we may be in a just-in-time slowdown or recession. When the information is fast an accurate, businesses will adapt to the change and contract in a hurry, Europe notwithstanding. But what about the other side of the coin? If the information is real time about business conditions, there may be a propensity then not to do anything as a vote of confidence. People may look at the data alone and do nothing until it becomes real clear that we have turned. We might have all the business executives staring into the headlights for a bit. So, the slowdown may become a self-fulfilling prophecy for a time. But at some point, I expect the upcycle will be sudden and dramatic. As everyone jumps on board again, we should have a just-in-time boomlet. I just don't see this happening right here and now.