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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Amy J who wrote (133808)	5/1/2001 2:33:54 AM
From: brushwud	Respond to of 186894

I still quite don't understand why his post was deleted? And I don't understand why you were nagging Scumbria about a little post of links he dredged up with his search engine. But back on topic... I've been trying to reconcile Andy Bryant's talk recently of a return to seasonality with Craig Barrett's opinion at breakfast last week that the bottom of this recession will be in 2H. I mean, Q2 is historically the weakest quarter, so if we believe Bryant, the next three Q's should be down-up-up. But if we believe Barrett, they'll be down-down-up. (They both anticipate a jolly XP season.) Also, it looks like Intel will have a golden opportunity to do what Cisco's doing--clear the decks for better profitability with an extraordinary writedown of receivables, inventory, obsolete plant, or intangible assets during this quarter or next which aren't shaping up to be too stellar. The scenario I foresee is that this Q will be basically profitless in terms of GAAP EPS. Then they'll announce the big writeoff next Q at the time of the next conference call. That way they can essentially compress all of the bad financial news of the year into a couple of hours in July. Many will be shocked to see the company lose money and have nothing to show for the first nine months of the year, but the management spin will be that the worst is over with nothing but profitable operations going forward. That may be their best hope to avoid turning Santa Clara into TeensilTown. It's a good time to work on a put strategy. A little insurance could go a long way!