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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (15273)	5/1/2001 10:10:55 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

Jim, from last December, I suggested that we are not going to actually go into a recession (2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth) in 2001. I am sure that the numbers will be modified, but you got to look at the huge inventory liquidation (which may be down sized) much more than the imports were reduced. Reduction of imports (less than the reduction in export) is actually a good sign long term. Unfortunately, that is going to swing back to monthly balance of payments deficit near $35 to $40 B, and that after a year or so, will cause a major recession (coupled with few other nasty news this time roughly next year). Whatever modifications the numbers will have, the growth is still going to be positive, IMHO. Zeev