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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: briskit who wrote (76337)	5/2/2001 9:04:23 AM
From: t2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Could we finally see capitulation by the shorts? If the market goes on a upswing this morning, we should see massive short covering of techs and if by chance the bonds get weak, the effect will be even more profound. I still monitor Tod Harrison (hedge fund) of realmoney.com and he is still bearish. The guest host on CNBC seems bearish--also believe he operates a hedge. Even Greg Hymowitz yesterday on CNBC was cautious...I guess because bought and then took profits---now wants to buy low again. Vince Farrell yesterday expected to see a retest on the Nasdaq. This was just comments made by high profile money managers or hedge funds in the last 24 hours. Lots of skepticism. My conclusion: The day looks pretty good on the Nasdaq; we should get a higher gain on the Nasdaq than yesterday. Expecting to see some capitulation by the shorts in an effort to maintain some nice gains from being short in the past 8 to 9 months or so. Cisco positive comments on Cisco even though Neutral rating is very positive for smaller communication stocks..like VTSS, AMCC, PMCS etc...If they go up, you can bet the Nasdaq will go up even if the gains in Cisco do not appear to be warranted on a fundamental basis. (However, I would expect it to keep going up) IMHO, the suppliers to Cisco are going to be big winners as that is a heavily shorted group of stocks. Downgrade of energy stocks; rising oil inventories. You know there was a problem when Munder started advertising their energy funds earlier this year on CNBC...they did the same thing with their internet (Munder Net Net) last year. That is what kept me away from energy lately. The downgrade of the oil stocks (along with API inventories going up) is a big factor in my prediction for gains on the Nasdaq, maybe almost as important as the comments on Cisco. I would bet that that the funds will chase technology and financials today. Momentum!..it never goes away <g> Only changes direction.