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To: Uncle Frank who wrote (8059)	5/2/2001 2:59:58 PM
From: SecularBull	Respond to of 10934

Same for me, wtfdik? ~SB~

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (8059)	5/4/2001 4:31:46 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 10934

Sold my puts today. In at 5.6, out at 5.0. So far, I've done this twice, for a small overall loss. Also sold my NVLS puts today, for a small loss. Still holding JNPR and TXN puts. As of today, I'm 70% long OldEconomy stocks, 10% put LEAPs, and 20% cash. Sentiment has swung 180 degrees in about 30 days. In early April, everyone was debating whether to sell, to avoid having their portfolio chopped in half again. Today, BuyTheDip is suddenly popular again, and many seem confident TheBottomIsIn. I'm worried about the possibility that the Fed may, through extremely aggressive rate cuts, and massive liquidity infusions, re-inflate the Bubble. If that happens, stocks may go up until inflation gets over 4%. At that point, the Fed will not be able to continue solving all problems by shovelling cash into the breach. IMO, business spending levels can go up (for things like NTAP's products), and consumer spending can only be sustained at current levels, by the accumulation of more debt. And, IMO, current debt levels are already too high, for both consumers and businesses. A lot of NTAP's customers don't have the cash flow or cash to survive a recession. That means that, if I'm right about an upcoming recession (when the Fed shuts off the liquidity/rate-cut spigot), that we haven't yet seen the bottom in business conditions for NTAP. And we might not see it till 2002. So, I'm reducing my puts, but I am not adding to my long positions. I certainly will not take a long position in NTAP over 20. So far this year, I'm way ahead on my short-term trading (even with today's losses). If we've seen the lows for tech stocks, then I missed the opportunity.