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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (76428)	5/3/2001 4:34:59 AM
From: Bruce Brown	Respond to of 99985

i think the next move by the fed will be a rate hike, but that may be months away... Do you really think that's in the cards as they manage the post bubble phase? Before they would hike, they would change their trend by leaving rates unchanged. Following that, they would most likely change their bias. Depending on how one views that scenario, we could view those two steps as 'moves' before the 'move' to hike. If you meant that all of that would precede your 'months away' target, then for a fun read, take a look at the Pimco group and their fair job of being on top of some thought process concerning the FED: pimco.com Hard to think that the easing cycle has finished yet, let alone that the FED would suddenly shift the cycle right back to tightening within months based on the data at this point. Data in Europe now starting to come in from various countries that some sort of an easing cycle will most likely be in the future on this side of the pond based on some of the manufacturing data trends. my bellweather stock to watch besides ge, is walmart, which is in a massive triangle mirroring the dow, if it breaks above 55 on a gapping white volume candle, i believe we will be headed to dow 13000. Both good stocks to watch as the former is a global mutual fund and the latter will suggest the health of the consumer in certain segments of retail in terms of consumer spend. We could round that 'watch' out with other consumer retail targets that might measure better demographics of consumer spend to include those consumers that might not frequent a Wal-Mart. BB P.S. News from yesterday was that the GE-Honeywell merger is tentatively OK'd in the US.

To: bobby beara who wrote (76428)	5/3/2001 1:37:02 PM
From: t2	Respond to of 99985

bb, What do you see happening given this significant drop today. Still making a bullish case? ie. Just profit taking. The only thing I have noticed is that the Put/Call rose a bit from the past few days. V shaped recovery would be very extremely bullish today; Does not look like it will happen as we have the Employment numbers for April out tomorrow and those are not expected to be good...but no who knows. Bearish case keeps looking better and better every minute. But I am still not willing to bail out of my longs...can endure some more pain.<g>