To: MikeM54321 who wrote (11195 ) 5/3/2001 12:46:32 PM From: axial Respond to of 12823 Hi, Mike - I understand your POV. I suppose the disparity in our thinking is not that great, either. We have long been discussing the resistance of the incumbents, and the continued tightness of money markets is an undeniable fact, at least in the rear-view mirror. The inability of telecomms players to float commercial paper in the last year has been a puzzle. It flew in the face of repeated stories that indicated Greenspan had begun to pump liquidity back into the economy, and that such liquidity was presently above the levels established for the Y2K non-event. Yet, at a recent AGM, the fact that there was no money was repeated often. Well, if Greenspan was pumping liquidity back into the markets, where was it ? The recent newsletter by Ed Yardeni supplied the answer. (I will paraphrase, out of necessity)... He said that in 1984, he coined the term "Bond Vigilantes" to describe the growing power of fixed income investors and traders over the economy. In recent years, he said, they've lost some of their clout because the U.S. Treasury is paying off the federal debt. Also, inflation has been relatively tame, and so have they. Venture capitalists became the new power elite in the late 1990s leading the Nasdaq to record highs. He says that now the bond crowd is back: they are tightening credit conditions, while the Fed is easing. The Treasury bond yield is up over 50 basis points since March, which is boosting mortgage rates. The spread between A-rated corporate and 10-year Treasury yields has widened dramatically from around 150 basis points at the end of 1999 to more than 250 basis points recently. The high-yield and commercial paper markets are essentially shutdown for all but prime borrowers. He goes on to indicate that the resulting rapid rise in the monetary aggregates is Exhibit A in the case against both a recession and a prolonged bear market in stock. He notes that markets now appear to be 15% overvalued; recently stock prices advanced, even as revenues declined. He concluded that either bond investors need Prozac, or stock investors are back on Ecstasy. Anyway, another perspective on the puzzling problems in the telecosm, FWIW. Best regards, Jim