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Technology Stocks : General Magic -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: John Madarasz who wrote (9522)5/3/2001 11:58:17 AM
From: equityanalyst  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10081
 
John, thanks for the technicals and the reference to the "Little Engine that Could" -- I like that analogy and I'm going to start using it, unless you have it patented :)

(Also, after much trials and tribulations, it's nice to know that the engine finally made it over the hill!)

From a fundamental perspective, IMHO the press release solidifies the General Motors-GMGC relationship (some were perhaps worried about it), and of course is an agreement that later can be extended beyond the two-year time frame. With GM's roughly 20% all-in ownership of GMGC and the crucial importance of the role that GMGC's NOC plays in OnStar/Virtual Advisor, it would sure seem that any concerns over the company's cash burn and "survivability" can be laid to rest, Jonathan Lawrence's warnings notwithstanding. In a report this morning he's keeping his Neutral rating on the stock but advising investors to exit pending more visibility over the financial condition. That may be good advice for those unable/unwilling to wait but, of course, by the time everything's rosy and we all feel good about the financials, revenues, etc., the stock's likely to be a lot higher. As always in the stock market, "you pays your money and you takes your chances."

If worse came to worse, I believe that GM will support GMGC financially (i.e., via more stock ownership or cash infusion), or would absorb the company via a buyout . . . question is, of course, at what price per share?

The message to long-term investors, IMO, is that this is very positive news that is being obscured by today's weak market and general selling by short-term traders who were hoping for a buyout or other major announcements coming out of the CC. I for one am willing to give Kathie and company some time to prove themselves and finally make this work. But hey, I've been wrong before.

Best,
ea