To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (6909 ) 5/3/2001 12:38:10 PM From: Lee Lichterman III Respond to of 52237 10:33 AM FED TALK: Fed easing expectations have increased today in the wake of higher-than-expected jobless claims and weakness in equities. Wednesday's Beige Book report and the drop below 50 in the NAPM non-manufacturing index are also contributing to the general sense that the outlook may not have improved enough to prompt the Fed to ease up on the gas. The May Fed Fund futures contract is trading around 4.295%, matching the life-of-contract low rate set on April 25. At that level, the contract is pricing in somewhere between a 50% and 60% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut, vs. about a 40% chance at Wednesday's close. The July contract is back to fully pricing in 50 basis points in rate cuts between now and the June 26/27 meeting, trading down to 3.975% from 4.01% at Wednesday's close. There were rumors this morning of reports by consulting groups with Fed contacts, that suggested that a 25 basis point cut is possible depending on Friday's employment report for April. =================== 10:02 AM ECONOMY TALK: Layoff announcements hit a record for the second month in a row in April, rising to 165,564 from the March record of 162,867. The telecom sector continued to lead the way in announcing job cuts, announcing 26,464 planned job cuts in April, bringing the year-to-date total to 91,799. Computer companies have also announced significant job cuts (18,498 in April) as capital spending slows and companies invest less in technology. =========================== Thursday, May 3, 2001 Fed adds combined $8.750 bln temporary reserves - Reuters Securities - 10:46 am Fed says buying TIPS for delivery Friday - Reuters Securities - 10:44 am Fed adds $2.0 bln reserves via 28-day repos - Reuters Securities - 9:38 am Fed adds reserves via 6-day, then ovenright repos - Reuters Securities - 9:36 am ===================== Just did a tour of the bull threads. I love it! For the last couple years, they used forward earnings to compute PE, first a year out, then two years out etc. Now they are switching to trailing earnings since the future earnings outlook is so bleak. If you don't like the numbers, make them up as you go I guess. Good Luck, Lee