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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BigBull who wrote (90602)	5/3/2001 4:53:19 PM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Anybody got OPEC compliance numbers handy?

To: BigBull who wrote (90602)	5/4/2001 9:32:15 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

BAMM ! Da' BEAR is BACK ~ Bill Gross's commentary from Pimco is RIGHT ON ! Valuations here given this economy are still beyond any sane historic norm. The Bear looks ready to resume his carnage here imo. The SOX up 40% in a mo looks like a good short trade & I still think we retest , or set new NAZ lows by summers end. BULLSKY's comments are right on ! - if we see Crude levels "SUSTAINED" near 310-320 M boe - put a fork in this cycle folks.... lights out ~ crude prices are going to contract very quickly . You've got to trade on the early indicators - the lead indicators, not lagging indicators, not present fundamentals; here at this mature point of the cycle. Unless the API's reverse direction quickly & strongly - the Fat Lady's coming on stage & she's a handfull to stop once she gathers up steam... I'm in for a partial short trade & will add shorts on weakness - not long a dime in the patch here. Yes; I would consider going long again in the patch; but this last 30 point trading range play seems like perhaps the last of the "easy" ones... those API builds & Nat Gas hovering at a 6 mo low, with rising supply surprising analysts does NOT portend for the Oilpatch stocks racing to new highs anytime soon - GIVEN we also have an economy that keeps surprising to the downside as well - THAT does NOT indicate that the OSX is going to new highs in the nearterm. Yes; we DO have the earnings momenteum & frontline activity to support new highs - but: ONLY IF - we had positive lead indicators like declining, or stable API crude & AGA NG supply trends AND an econonmy that had shown TANGIBLE proof of bottoming & was clearly turning up... but; we don't have that... we've got the opposite; we've got the lead- fundamental indicators turning negative for the patch and the economy is continually slowing & surprising to the downside & it's lead forward looking indicators portend more negatives to come... and THAT folks - AINT A GOOD THING FOR THE PATCH. XOM's CEO Lee Raymond allways says: "30 days is a longtime in the oilpatch" ... so if you can't understand this "TURN ON A DIME" mindset; I'd humbly suggest you get your ass out of trading cyclicals (VBG). Again for the PermaBulls; yes; we DO have the earnings profile, momenteum & frontline activity PRESENTLY in the patch to support significant new shareprice highs - BUT ! - the Street is NOT going to look at the "present" - at this mature, if not late point in the cycle; they are going to trade off the forward looking early indicators like those API & AGA builds & they WILL strongly trade off of forward looking lead economic indicators as well... A SLOWING ECONOMY IS NOT WHAT SUSTAINED OILPATCH BOOMS ARE MADE OF - period. RISING SUPPLY & DECREASING DEMAND... what else really needs to be said ? NAPM (Nat Assoc of Purchasing Mgrs) stats were, or should have been a reality check for this economy & what to expect in the coming mos. Todays Employment (unemployment!) numbers HAVE to be a reality check - since they were a 10 fold multiple of the expected increase of new jobless claims. Consumer Spending is ALL that is holding this economy together & this JOBS number & the continued corporate layoffs virtually guarantee a coming collapse in consumer confidence & spending. JOBS are the primary driver to consumer confidence - not the Nasdq. Todays' monetary base chart & info on CNBC shows the FED has still lagged injecting necessary liquidity into this market & increased liquidity MUST NOW come from the FED & come quick. BAMM ! - "that" liquidity injection that now "clearly must come from the Fed" - is the reason the gold stocks have led a price of gold move (as they should) - because the Fed; as Forbes, Kudlow et al have continually pointed out; has NOT added enough liquidity into this system & quote/unquote: "IT WILL TAKE A GOLD PRICE OF $340ish TO INDICATE THAT THE FED HAS INJECTED ADEQUATE LIQUIDITY INTO THE SYSTEM" .... This economy is and will continue to surprise to the downside & everything is falling into place for the "perfect GOLD RALLY STORM" - bank on it, it's when, not if.... ... how much ya got ? (gold/silver; that is...)