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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pompsander who wrote (71787)	5/3/2001 6:20:01 PM
From: Don Green	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, traditionally a leadership group within the tech sector, fell 23.58, or 3.5%, to 647.07. Fifteen of its 16 components suffered declines. Bucking the trend was memory chipmaker Rambus (RMBS), rising 1.75, or more than 10%, to 18.15 after the company disclosed higher-than-expected royalty rates for DDR DRAM and SDRAM during testimony in the firm's patent-infringement lawsuit against Infineon Technologies (IFX). 123Jump.com

To: pompsander who wrote (71787)	5/3/2001 6:39:57 PM
From: Bilow	Respond to of 93625

Hi pompsander; Re: "Why do you think Rambus is up today on such strong volume?" I believe that it is the blurb that Don Green posted back to you. Wall Street doesn't read this thread, or the trade press. They have no idea what is going on in the trial. In addition, the price action after the Markman ruling a few weeks ago indicates that Wall Street doesn't have an inside connection to the trial. If you recall, the Markman ruling was reported in Electronic News the night before, and there was a major bear party on this thread, but RMBS opened up the next morning like nothing was going on. It was only when the news went out on the Dow Jones news service a few hours later, (or whatever it is that Wall Street listens to), that the stock dropped 30% by the end of the day. The fact is that mom and pop Rambus investor have a much better idea what is going on in the trial than Wall Street. The best news source for the trial has been Yahoo's Rambus thread, of all things. Consequently, like you say, the TA and the FA are out of sync. Most of the time that means believe the TA, but there are exceptions. One exception was that Markman ruling back March 15th, where the TA said no bid deal. To see how this is possible, put yourself in the shoes of a trader for a big mutual fund, or an institutional daytrader, or even a self employed daytrader. Rambus is not the only thing he trades, he has to watch dozens, if not thousands of other stocks. Consequently, he doesn't have time to read the stuff that mom and pop on this thread do. Way too much total garbage gets posted on the Internet for any of the useful, informative, predictive posts to stand out. He wouldn't be able to separate the wheat from the chaff even if he had the time to read it. Think how many posts show up on this thread that are just copies of Rambus news. Instead, he sits at a terminal and listens to what the "squak box" says. The squak box is a public address system where you have a guy that reads the news that comes across the wire. That is the news that is important to Wall Street. The guy reads that Rambus is making more royalties on DDR than people had thought, hundreds of traders hear this, it's positive news, so they run the stock up 10%. Wall Street is amazingly insular. This is where mom and pop can beat the street, provided they can weed through the BS and maintain a level head. Wall Street is not very well connected to the real world, they live in their own little world of prices and news. Just looking at the stock bubble that is in the process of bursting should make that pretty clear. Their estimate of a stock's value is what someone most recently paid for it, modified by what is coming across on the wire. So what's your read on it? -- Carl