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To: Archie Meeties who wrote (99434)	5/3/2001 5:47:04 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

<<If this continues, the trading perspective on oil is about to shift to favor sellers. Already the guiding question is "how big are the builds", not "how small">> I agree. OPEC and their will to maintain the trading range will be tested here. They need to cut production in their next meeting, otherwise inventory builds will end the cycle one way or the other. Royal Dutch had some interesting comments on refining margins in their CC today, notably, they did not see significant demand reduction for gas (though they did for chemicals): marketwatch.com Shell said Brent crude prices averaged $25.80 during the quarter, down from $26.95 as U.S. demand eased a little. However, it said it expected refining margins in the U.S. and Europe to continue at higher than average levels for some months. "We have again delivered on our promises," Shell's outgoing Chairman Sir Mark Moody-Stuart said in a statement. "Of course high oil and gas prices have contributed a lot to this result, but what is really important is that underlying performance has continued to improve." Analysts expressed some surprise, however, at the absence of much warning about slower U.S. economic growth. Though Shell noted that could be a problem for its chemicals sales it gave little sign that it expected demand to abate or its refining margins shrink. Now, Moody-Stuart is a twit, and one of my least favorite oil execs, but it doesn't (necessarily) mean he's wrong on this...<G>