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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tom ablett who wrote (9557)	5/3/2001 10:17:46 PM
From: Brian Lempel	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 10309

Only thing I have to add is that this setback should in no way affect anyone's long term opinion on this company. We all realize that, while licensing and services are important, the real potential lies in royalties, which have the potential to dwarf other sources of income. And as long as WIND continues to gain market share in an exploding market, they will come through this economic downturn unscathed. WIND has the cash and current profitability to get through this--many competitors will come out much weaker. There is nothing at this point to suggest that WIND is losing market share. At first,I was worried by the statement that companies were paradoxically shifting to less outsourcing in this downturn. But that does not refer to OS development, but rather services. Because the labor market was so tight, WIND was in high demand. But now companies can use their existing employee base and not pay the price for Wind River Services. Also, the dry venture capital pool has meant fewer startups--a traditionally strong customer base in the services division. That said, WIND should emerge from the downturn with a greater market share. As was stated in the conference call, the best customer relationships will be formed at times like this. Furthermore, there was the hint of several announcement to be made public in the next two weeks--new products as well as partners. I furthermore am not overly concerned with the issue of lower product revenues in this quarter. Anecdotally, it seems that the problem was not demand for licensing--rather smaller purchases were made as a result of internal beaurocracies in other companies. But if the engineers desire to use WIND tools, they will have to come back for the rest of the purchase. This lower level of licensing is only disturbing if it reflects a loss of market share. And I don't think at this point that it does. However, it is important to note that if the product cycle lengthens, one of WIND's main selling point--time to market advantages--becomes weakened. From a royalties standpoint, WIND's significant deign wins of the past year should carry it through this this product cycle. But just to reiterate, it must be closely monitored to make sure that they are designed into the next generation as well. In closing, I'd simply like to add that for a long term WIND investor, this is a non-event. While there are added risks in the short term, there is also a very good chance that the company will emerge in a much stronger position. As I personally resume my efforts over the next 4 months (now that the university is winding down for the summer) to develop the lily pond model, there will likely be a great buying opportunity for those that can see through the short term fog to the picture in 2-3 years. Kind Regards, Brian

To: tom ablett who wrote (9557)	5/4/2001 8:46:41 AM
From: w2j2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10309

Tom and Mike: I agree that owning Wind stock in a big way has been very frustrating over the last several years. However, I think Fiddler has a long term plan (vision) and is following it. "That's my story, and I'm sticking to it!" He has bought up most of his competition, expanded both in breadth and depth with great strategic purchases such as BSD. While the stock doesn't move, they are certainly doing the right things as far as growing the company. And Wind has been a steady grower of revenues. A "Warren Buffett" tech stock? The company is to some extent a service company now, and will take a hit first when clients are laying off their own personnel. But service is where IBM makes a lot of it's money.... The embedded industry is still just in the early stage. The concept of wired "everything" is going to come slowly, not as a whirlwind. (This reminds me of our frustration when we owned the ADSL stocks, and the RBOCs would not move on ADSL). Both customers and builders need to recognize the value. Broadband infrastructure must improve. This paradigm shift will take a lot more time than the chip cycle. As a tech investor, I like to see my stocks go up like AMCC or Brocade or Veritas can. But those companies are pushing product out for which the surge in demand is now. Wind has not yet reached its surge in demand. Finally, I think when they come out of this downturn, chipmakers may find that their downsized software groups cannot design what they need fast enough, so they may turn to Wind in a big way to jump-start their next development cycles. Bottom line, I think Wind is a good company to invest in, and will pay off well over the long term. How long? Beats me. wj

To: tom ablett who wrote (9557)	5/4/2001 10:06:08 AM
From: Peter Church	Respond to of 10309

>>>sold at 61 I think it was>>> Good for you, Tom! With consumers pulling back from their splurge mentality, I think it will be awhile before many mothers get Internet picture frames with an associated web page. The consumer appliance market is going to suffer for a while, I think. And the telecom market is a basket case. But, let me know if you buy a digital camera. I want one myself. Allen's a great optimist and visionary, but you need to keep your head. Shorting WIND would have been a better play six months ago. The current news was really somewhat predictable given the macro-telecom environment as Khan pointed out. I am pleased that TSD has taken appropriate steps to maintain the company even though layoffs are going to be painful. WIND will come through these hard times and hopefully we'll see 61 again. Any good short ideas?