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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dale_laroy who wrote (38261)	5/4/2001 12:10:42 AM
From: Petz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Dale, Assuming a 10% increase in percentage yield this would result in at least a 48% increase in units shipped per wafer...This would take AMD from 21.3% to about a 32% market share by the end of Q1 2003. Can can't assume any increase in yield, rather a decrease, at the beginning of the 0.13u process. Therefore I think your conclusion is 1 to 2 quarters too optimistic. Petz

To: dale_laroy who wrote (38261)	5/4/2001 2:40:35 AM
From: kash johal	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Dale, re: Fab 25 and 0.13 What dreamworld are u living in. fab 25 is kaput and on last legs barely producing 1Ghz processors. Fab 25 has NO 0.13. AMD has no Al 0.13 process. AMD has already stated Fab 25 goes to flash. Forget Fab 25 for CPU's by mid 2002. Fab 30 is roughly at 50% capacity and its producing about 50% of AMD's units now. By Q1 next yr Fab 30 is full capacity. So by Q1 they will be able to ship same number of units as today (plus maybe 10% due to yield improvement). AMD clearly runs out of capacity by mid 2002. Yes 0.13 lowers die sizes. But folks add features making die sizes bigger- its inevitable. So by Mid 2002 AMD MUST HAVE outside foundry assuming they are going to increase market share. The only way they do that is by external fab arrangement. My best guess is IBM/UMC foundry partners in pure buy/sell arrangent followed by some kind of JV fab for fab 35. So from mid 2002 to 2004 they utilize say up to 50% of a UMC 12" fab. And in 2004 the new JV fab would come on line. AMD has pretty much said they will probably partner for next fab. regards, Kash