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To: Les H who wrote (99589)5/4/2001 11:38:54 AM
From: XBrit  Respond to of 436258
 
Here's the full article on GDP revision. Kind of an odd thing for the White House to say, even if true. Look at the addendum, they more or less tried to retract later.

=======

May 4, 2001

White House Warns 1st Qtr GDP May Be Revised Down
Dow Jones Newswires

WASHINGTON -- The Bush administration warned Friday that the preliminary growth figure for the economy in the first quarter may have to be revised downward.

"The president remains very concerned about the strength of the economy," White House spokesman Ari Fleischer said.

Fleischer said Bush is also "concerned about data suggesting" that the economy actually grew less rapidly than the preliminary figure of 2% growth in the gross domestic product.

"It is entirely possible that that 2% growth will be revised downward," Fleischer said.

Fleischer said that since the preliminary growth figure was calculated by the federal govermment, the White House has seen additional "troubling data" suggesting the growth rate was overstated.

As an example of this, Fleischer pointed to the employment figures released earlier Friday, in which nonfarm payroll jobs declined 223,000 in April. Economists had been expected an increase in the number of jobs by 25,000.

On Thursday, Japanese Economics Minister Heizo Takenaka said that he was told by members of Bush's Council of Economic Advisers that the administration believes the U.S. economy will go through a "check-mark" recovery.

By this, Takenaka said the CEA expects a sharp quick downturn at the beginning of the economic cycle followed by "a steady, moderate improvement."

Takenaka also said that the CEA members told him they believe the U.S. economy has the potential to grow at an annual rate of 3.5%.

-By Alex Keto, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-862-9256; Alex.Keto@Dowjones.com

Deputy White House spokeswoman Claire Buchan said later that Fleischer's comments shouldn't be viewed as a warning that the first quarter GDP figures would be revised downward. Rather, she said, Fleischer was expressing concern about the economy

"He was simply restating that the president continues to be concerned about the strength of the economy," Buchan said.

"It was not a warning," she added.

-By Alex Keto, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-862-9256; Alex.Keto@Dowjones.com



To: Les H who wrote (99589)5/4/2001 11:42:59 AM
From: Les H  Respond to of 436258
 
Too many savers

guardianunlimited.co.uk

sounds like paradise...



To: Les H who wrote (99589)5/4/2001 12:07:56 PM
From: Skeeter Bug  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
les, i think us gdp growth is reduced to factor out inflation.

i think the big issue with gdp is that it is no longer what it used to be. its noneconomic components are so large now that we could be in an economic recession while the new hybrid gdp number shows positive economic + noneconomic growth.