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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (46226)	5/4/2001 3:14:16 PM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

" If last December was the bottom for semi-equips, then I missed it, and will have no position in the next upcycle (and 300 mm should make the next upcylce huge). I'm certainly not going to chase it at these levels." Jacob, For a smart man, a bonehead comment. And i say that with the greatest respect for you. I read all your posts and you have saved me much money by making me more cautious. I am not telling you to buy here, but if and when you do decide that the bottom is in and since you are convinced that the next cycle will be "huge", why wouldnt you get in? If amat is 50 now where will the high be and when will it occur. Thats the question you should ask yourself. Mike

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (46226)	5/4/2001 3:15:15 PM
From: Ross	Respond to of 70976

Why not buy in once the "up" cycle is confirmed by improving business? Previous cycles have had lots of stock "up" left even after the business turn was confirmed. Worry that the cycle might be abbreviated, leaving you hanging? Or better gains elsewhere if you miss the bottom in semi-equips? Ross

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (46226)	5/4/2001 3:53:06 PM
From: advocatedevil	Respond to of 70976

FWIW, I just covered my AMAT short at $51.25 for a meager 2 point gain. I'm going to take the weekend to reevaluate (again). AdvocateDevil

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (46226)	5/4/2001 4:23:20 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Respond to of 70976

Have you noticed that there has been no comment on Hill's suggestion that the recovery will be a U rather than a V. This is extremely noteworthy because none of the semi-equip charts of the past few years shows anything but a V. The real significance of a U is that the date the bottom is reached loses its importance. The long wait to the move up will test the market's patience and the key date will be the beginning of the move up. Don't dispair about missing the next move up. You will have ample opportunity. A current headline talks about the importance of CSCO's future guidance instead of the quarter's earnings details. CSCO has given future guidance. The $2.5B writeoff covered the next 12 months. That is the amount of current inventory that will still be sitting on CSCO's shelves in 12 months and will be obsolete, then.