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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (99791)	5/4/2001 5:55:00 PM
From: NOW	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

Where do they find these guys? "Fed's Kelley cited several reasons for optimism about the economy. He said that banks were "ready, willing and able" to lend to businesses. "Basically is credit is flowing and the monetary aggregates are rising at substantial rates, which would indicate to me that there is plenty of liquidity in the economy," he said. "I do not see financial conditions in the credit markets as being a problem." However, energy prices could pose a risk, he said. "I have a concern that, if we get a surge in energy costs as some economists are predicting this summer, that could have a negative impact on consumer expenditure stream that could be harmful."

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (99791)	5/5/2001 10:41:33 AM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

dailynews.yahoo.com

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (99791)	5/5/2001 5:03:57 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Heinz, have you seen this: surge in real M2 growth is a clear signal that the pace of economic activity is going to pickup in the second half of this year - if not the second quarter. northerntrust.com What do you think?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (99791)	5/6/2001 9:59:17 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Heinz, more ammunition to inflate the BUBBLE German Government, Opposition Seek Pension Law Accord This Week By Andreas Cremer Berlin, May 6 (Bloomberg) -- The German government and opposition Christian Democrats will this week push for an accord to promote private pensions, paving the way for tax breaks and subsidies valued at 21 billion deutsche marks ($9.6 billion). Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's government wants to reduce the burden that shrinking birth rates and rising life expectancy are placing on Germany's pay-as-you-go pensions system by encouraging private and company annuity provisions. Starting Tuesday, a cross-parliamentary panel of mediators will seek to agree rules for including home-buyers' savings in the range of retirement investments eligible for tax breaks. A consensus may tempt some states run by the ruling Social Democrats and opposition parties to approve the government's plans in the Bundesrat, or upper house where the states are represented, on May 11. ``Pension reform will reach the statute book next Friday if both sides can sort out their differences on the home-buying issue,'' said Stefan Schwarz, senior analyst at the Bonn-based Institute for Political Science. ``It's the key sticking-point.'' Overhaul of the country's pensions system is Schroeder's last major reform project planned before the next elections in the fall of 2002. Last summer, the government won states' support to push cuts in corporate and income taxes worth 50 billion marks through parliament. Rich Harvest The government expects as many as 20 million Germans to invest in private pensions from next year if the law is passed. Retirement assets in Germany, France, Italy and Spain are forecast to surge fivefold to $5 trillion by 2010 from $1.2 trillion, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimates. In Germany alone, banks and insurers are set to reap as much as 550 billion euros ($495 billion) in new business by 2008 if parliament approves the new rules, according to Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co. Banks and mutual fund companies such as Deutsche Bank AG are looking to team up with insurance companies to get a bigger slice of the market. To better exploit the expected boom in private pensions, Allianz AG, Europe's No. 2 insurer, in April agreed to pay $20 billion for the remaining 80 percent of Dresdner Bank AG it didn't already own. Negotiators on Thursday brought government and opposition parties closer to agreement on the issue of how home-owners can benefit from tax breaks and state subsidies. The Social Democrats' nine state governors are meeting with Schroeder this weekend, seeking to narrow differences on pension reform. For the pension reform to pass into law, Schroeder needs 35 of the Bundesrat's 69 votes. At present, neither the Social Democrats nor the main opposition parties can command a majority. Most of Germany's 16 states represented in the upper house opposed the plan in February, saying it would inflict excessive bureaucracy and extra budget costs. ©2001 Bloomberg L.P. All rights reserved. Terms of Service, Privacy Policy and Trademark

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (99791)	5/6/2001 11:34:16 AM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

bronson comment on longwaves: We expect the capitalization-weighted index (CWI) of some 6,800 publicly-traded US common stocks will at least reach the area of its 1998 lows before this first CWI bear market, in the deflationary Supercycle bear market period, is complete. Although only the equally -weighted total market index did that when this outrider indicator made lower lows in 1987 vs 1990. I've attached out latest graphic presentation of these two indices, with trendlines added for those who have asked about some of our technical failsafe thresholds. As for the shorter term, we believe the bullish divergence that was set up before the market decline from the February highs, and fooled most technicians, has now been worked off. We expect the next decline, reflecting a MCHVIE and selling climax #5 in a 12345 pattern, will make significant new lows, and will upset recent bottom-fishing technicians. It's all about the manufacturing and profits recession spreading to the service sector of the US economy, and the anticipating bear market spreading to all the non-tech sectors of the US stock market. Our forecasting models indicate that there can be very little doubt about this emerging fundamental and technical contagion. Forget the Fed lowering rates in a deflationary environment, except very short term moves. But don't fight the downtrend trend when the composite of sentiment indicators solidly indicate trend continuation. To wit, insiders steadfastly refusing to net buy to any significant degree after a $5T, 33% decline in the total market: insidertrader.com bullish percentage of AAII Investor Sentiment is at a new high of 64%, Investor's Intelligence newsletter advisory sentiment never became net bearish, put-call ratios are back in contrarian bearish territory, (especially look at the put-call volume indicator in IBD), and consumer sentiment (University of Michigan especially since it leads) is declining sharply, but nowhere near its historical bottom territory: 207.8.47.37 I will post what we believe are other bearish technical indicators as we get closer to the FOMC cutting interest rates, probably 50 bps, for the fifth time in just seven more trading days. I more than welcome rebuttals from anyone else, also. Bob Bronson Bronson Capital Markets Research