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Technology Stocks : SDLI - JDSU transition -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gbh who wrote (1416)	5/5/2001 7:16:20 PM
From: OWN STOCK	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3294

gbh: First, the market. Actually, this topic (investment style and market reaction) came up at the conference I attended. There was the rational viewpoint, which you express, then there was the realist viewpoint. IMO, there is much more incentive to have it (a momentum market) happen again, than there is to avoid it. I am a realist, and I know that in reality, it would be very hard for a fund manager to say to his/her customers that s/he was not investing in a momentum-driven market. It simply won't happen; they will invest a growing portion of the fund, telling themselves at first it is safe because it is only a small portion, and that they will dollar cost out... Second, the carriers: Slow rollout...that would be true if there was not so much money to be made, and no competition. But in reality, there is a lot of competition, and money is being made. Tell me SBC is going under...? Now it is Cable versus DSL and soon it will be versus wireless broadband...all to the last mile. The issue is who will win...my money is on the broadband wireless folks. Why? Initial installation costs are controllable, about equal to cellular, and provisioning costs are zero...well, in reality, they are borne by the customer when they buy the box. This is versus the zero cost of installation for DSL and Cable (relatively) but high provisioning and maintenance costs. Also, wireless picks up the mobile segment. All that will mean more core bandwidth...and more components... And a 4% traffic jump based on one good application is a huge explosion...so it is already happening... -Own