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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (7106)	5/5/2001 10:43:20 AM
From: catman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Food for thought.... this is my first post on this thread....its not exactly TA or FA, but I do believe it relates to a broad market analysis...sort of. While many of you are looking at the economy from a much deeper perspective, I am looking at a different scenario as I don't have the level of knowledge many of you already have. While TA and FA does does not support what we have seen in the market over the last month, the reality is, it has happened. We live in a society that moves at mach speed....this incredible expanding economy turned on a dime and collapsed in the last year.....analysts and CEO's were incredulous as to how fast the floor disappeared from under their feet. Could this scenario now happen in reverse just as quickly?. As I posted on the MS site, the way I see it, there is quite a dilemma at present. Fund managers either have to jump on the bandwagon or risk the ire of their shareholders for missing the boat...shorts have to decide whether to cover or risk the market trending higher....and the general public, while having been burnt this last year risk missing out on a possible bull market. If the market continues to trend higher, could this not affect consumer confidence in a positive way as portfolios and personal wealth begin to turn around...and fuel spending...and once the major companies begin to change their forward looking outlooks to the positive side...the stocks then rise, etc., etc., .....this almost becomes a self fulfilling prophecy in reverse....I realize this is a very basic overview, but its just my opinion and food for thought. While TA and FA play a very important role in my daily trading decisions, a broad outlook as to what's going on also helps. Hope you don't mind my two cents...good luck.

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (7106)	5/5/2001 11:07:18 AM
From: briskit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Daytrader.com weekly report If Friday's jobs report was any indication, it looks like the US economy could get worse before it gets better. As we have been suggesting for some time now, the employment report is a lagging indicator and that proved to be true Friday. Non-farm payrolls were down 223,000 versus the consensus expectations for a 25,000 increase. This reading was the largest loss of jobs in one month since the last recession in 1991.

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (7106)	5/5/2001 11:59:05 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Wow, Dennis, that is an old article. I guess I should write a new one for him even though I don't have time to do two sites anymore. Thanks for digging out that old dino. I forgot all about that site. Catman - Welcome to the thread, about time. Just don't stop posting on our site. -ggg- Good Points but I will take issue that TA didn't say this bounce would happen. I think all along we have been looking for a bounce to around 2200 NDX. It is just surprising FA wise it can do it in the face of so much bad news. As far as rate cuts, consumer spending spurring a new bull etc., anything is possible but as I said earlier, I take issue with many of the issues that are bouncing. I doubt they will all go out and buy web enabled cell phones, that they will all decide to open a web server farm etc. yet many of the stocks that are in these sectors are the ones trying to lead the charge up. This just looks to much like a bear rally/dead cat bounce. None of these stocks have even hit the 38% retracement of their falls yet much less surpassed the 50 or 62% that would lean towards this being anything longer term bullish. Don't get me wrong, I many if not most stocks may have seen their lows counting old economy brick and mortars. Some techs like Storage, Processors like AMD etc will no doubt survive but many others will probably fall back to lows and just languish for years. I think this bounce could last a day or 6 months but the levels close to the lows will be seen again. I would bet on sooner though rather than later due to the pop, drop and rally I spoke of before. Just like our discussion on our board, FA always wins in the end unless this is a new "pair-o-dimes". The last pair didn't end very well. -ggg- Good Luck, Lee