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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: westpacific who wrote (3458)	5/5/2001 12:22:28 PM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

I can't remember if you follow these graphs and charts. The tables at the bottom are even more alarming than the graphs. Even if the Fed is able to pull back on the money growth, what we see here is likely to result in inflation rates over 10% by the end of next year. I think that as soon as the annual rate of CPI passes 6 percent the Fed may raise rates. Maybe what we are in for is a dollar crisis as much as a stock market fiasco. What we see going on in those charts is not Weimar Republic monetary policy, but it certainly is close to what South American countries have done in the past. Already expectations of being saved by the Fed are so strong in the stock markets that if they don't cut another half percent next time they meet, it will seem like tightening. stls.frb.org stls.frb.org

To: westpacific who wrote (3458)	5/5/2001 3:06:53 PM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Respond to of 74559

Hi west: Tell you my side of this inflation equation. I come from what used to be Yugoslavia. In the 80s I had to do my first interest rate proficiency test: if the interest rate on your savings is 8%, the mortgages are at 15% and the inflation rate is 30%, what will you do a) do nothing and sit it out b) save as much as you can afford from your income so you have a decent down payment of your 1st house down the road c) take all the loans you can get and spend whichever way you like it etc... you got the idea. I did not have balls for c(had kids coming) but I still did fine thank you (realizing that eventually its the cash flow and the credit rating that matters).The inflation is (again my lesson from the good old YU) is the way of redistribution. You make somebody else pay for it - like my mother who held steadfastly to solution a above - Of course in the present situation it's a great help if Doobya suggests one should privatize social security (an oxymoron ancient Greeks would be proud of). There's so many ways one can make the dumb ones pick up the check. One word of caution or retraction - energy will still cost dollars. So I would assume USD inflation would pump up the petrol prices some more. Except if Saddam Husseins idea of pegging to euro takes fire... re Will not be long till the old fart has to go the other way and start raising rates. First, how dare you talk like this about our beloved chairman... Second, if/when the dollar starts to falter, he's got - man ... - he's got a problem with a capital P. because the world will not believe any more the US consumer has the will and the power to drag us all of of the s*t.