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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (46281)	5/5/2001 7:16:34 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Respond to of 70976

RE: " But I suspect you now wish that at Naz 5000, you had liquidated too." Review: The plan was to invest x and achieve 4.17 times x. I invested the second 1/2 of x in '98. At the bottom of '98, I was at 74.2% of x. At the top, I reached 4.58 times x, but 1.67 times x was already cash. I got to 2.76 times x in cash (66.2% of my target) before last June. Currently, I am 3.8 times x, or 91.2% of my target and 82.9% of my top and 73.8% of my target is cash. Of course 100% hindsight realizes that the optimum course would have been complete liquidation at the top. I never attempt to optimize results because that requires hindsight. I prefer a strategy that reflects my opinion but leaves room for error. Obviously, my opinion last year was that stocks were way over priced and I sold the lion's share. My attempt to leave room for error has cost me 8.8% of my target and 17.1% of my top. Almost all the stock I sold was in my tax-deferred IRA account. Most of the stock I didn't sell is in my taxable account, so I saved the 20% capital gains tax and the CA state tax. Roughly, the tax reduces the 8.8% and 17.1%, to ~ 6.3% and 12.1%. RE: "Unlike you, I am not giving advice here." Most of your posts seem to defend a bullish outlook and some have advised purchases. I have not given specific advice. I have posted my orders and executions and my view of the situation. I have been careful to state the % of my net and liquid assets at stake.