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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (7143)	5/6/2001 2:39:52 AM
From: Berney	Respond to of 52237

It seemed confusing to me as well! Let me first state that I believe that the contributors to this thread posted some of the best articles and analysis that I have seen on a weekend in my long experience with SI. As usual, I always sit in awe of the time you take. Sadly, I must admit to really being (as bb would say) stoopid. Thanks to a bailout by AG & Co, I've been at about 96% cash in my little Phleet since 4/18. Nevertheless, since that date, there have been some great trading opportunities and I missed them all. My log reflects three attempts to enter the Cubes (QQQ), and missed my entry on all three, sitting on the sidelines watching the market run away. Friday was another example. Friday, I was in joy when the Cubes broke its 60-min up trend line. I had no understanding of the subsequent rally. However, if one was looking at the Index that mattered Friday, the entry was obvious. If one was watching NDX (60 min), which obviously someone was, the setup was in the cards. My current view is that NDX will again fail at about 1980, but the next low should be in the range of 1840 to 1850. The bigger issue is that the market is getting coiled. A close in either direction could be explosive. If we close above 1980, your target of 2250 could easily be witnessed, and it could all happen this week. In the FWIW category, your earnings issue is right on target. Clearly, the CSCO write-off will allow them to control their earnings for years to come. More importantly, the total earnings of the Cubes was ~$41, and, as of last weekend, projected to be ~$18 this year and ~$39 next. The result will be an imaginary double. It is also important to note that the acquisition of VSTR by DT will remove it from the NDX. That move, as astounding as it may seem, is going to add 50% to the NDX projected earnings for the current year. In our local newspaper, I noted an article that indicated that the White House expected the GDP to be lowered, retroactively, for the first quarter. That number alone provided comfort that we were not in a recessionary mode, despite the significant Y/Y decline in the SnP earnings. How few even understand how the GDP is computed? I certainly am not proficient in the matter. However, a principal ingredient is the balance of trade (exports - imports). This number took a funny turn in the first quarter. I would suggest that a revision in the GDP would first be suggested in a revision of the the balance of trade for the first quarter. Just a View from the Swamp Berney